Kings of Leon: A One-Night Arena

Takeover in Tampa

📅 Saturday | January 31, 2026 | 9:00 PM
📍Location: Benchmark International Arena

401 Channelside Dr, Tampa, FL 33602

🎶 The Sound That Defined a Generation (And Still Evolves)

This isn’t a long residency. It’s not a multi-night run. It’s a single, exclusive Kings of Leon show, and that’s exactly why it matters.

On Saturday, January 31, Tampa becomes the backdrop for one of rock’s most enduring bands as Kings of Leon bring their signature sound to the arena for one night only. If you’ve seen them before, you know this isn’t just a concert, it’s a slow-burn, full-body experience that builds, swells, and hits with real emotional weight.

And if you haven’t? This is the one to catch.

From the raw grit of their early records to the polished, stadium-ready anthems that followed, Kings of Leon have mastered the art of evolving without losing their edge.

Expect a setlist that moves effortlessly between eras, moody, atmospheric tracks layered with soaring choruses, and those unmistakable riffs that feel just as powerful live as they do through headphones.

This is the band that gave us songs that live somewhere between nostalgia and right-now relevance,  and in an arena setting, those moments hit differently.

Sounds of the Street: Music Takes Over

Water Street

📅 Sunday | February 1, 2026 | 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM
📍Location: 971 Water St, Tampa, FL 33602

🎧 When the Street Becomes the Stage

As the sun dips and the city settles into evening, Water Street Tampa will begin to hum with sound. Sounds of the Street will transform walkways, plazas, and corners into a living, breathing music experience, where live performances aren’t confined to one stage, but scattered like hidden gems throughout the district.

You won’t just attend this event.
You’ll stumble into it, one melody at a time.

Free. Walkable. Atmospheric. And genuinely local.

Sounds of the Street will turn Water Street Tampa into a place where music isn’t the main event, it’s the connective thread that brings the entire neighborhood to life.

If you’re looking for a night that feels spontaneous, stylish, and unmistakably Tampa, this is where you’ll want to be when the street starts to sing.

Palmette Brasserie & Bar: A Fresh Coastal Chapter Opens on Tampa Bay

Opening: January 28, 2026

📍 Location: 7627 W Courtney Campbell Cswy, Tampa, FL 33607

🌴 Where Coastal Style Meets Everyday Sophistication

Palmette Brasserie & Bar will open its doors with a clear vision: modern coastal dining that feels polished but never pretentious. Set directly on Tampa Bay, this new brasserie will pair relaxed waterfront energy with elevated American fare, creating a space that works just as well for an easy lunch as it does for a cocktail-forward evening.

Expect breezy interiors, warm textures, and a design that leans into the water views. The kind of place where sunset becomes part of the experience.

The bar will be a centerpiece — not an afterthought. Palmette Brasserie & Bar will spotlight craft cocktails with a coastal edge, balanced classics, and an atmosphere designed to stay lively well into the evening.

Whether you’re stopping in for a single drink or settling in for the night, the space will feel social, energetic, and intentionally welcoming.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Winnipeg Jets

📅 Thursday | January 29, 2026 | 7:00 PM

📍 Location: Benchmark International Arena

Address: 401 Channelside Dr, Tampa, FL 33602

🔥 A Winter Showdown in Thunder Alley

Hockey season hits full stride as the Tampa Bay Lightning return home for a high-energy matchup against the Winnipeg Jets. January games carry extra weight, and this one brings the intensity as both teams battle through the heart of the NHL season with playoff positioning very much in mind.

The atmosphere inside the arena will be electric — crisp ice, loud crowds, and the kind of fast-paced hockey that keeps fans on their feet from puck drop to final horn.

The Jets arrive known for disciplined play, speed through the neutral zone, and dangerous scoring depth — the kind of opponent that demands focus and physicality. For Tampa Bay, this matchup is a chance to assert home-ice dominance, control tempo, and put on a complete performance in front of a packed house.

Expect hard forechecks, highlight-reel saves, and momentum swings that make midweek hockey feel anything but routine.

Gasparilla Pirate Fest:

Tampa’s Most Legendary Day

📅 Saturday | January 31, 2026 | 2:00 PM – 5:30 PM
📍 Location: Bayshore Blvd, Tampa, Florida 33629

⚓ When Tampa Becomes a Pirate Kingdom

Every January, Tampa Bay throws ordinary rules overboard and transforms into a full-blown pirate stronghold. Gasparilla Pirate Fest isn’t just an event, it’s a citywide ritual. Inspired by the legend of José Gaspar, this high-energy celebration invites everyone to dress the part, embrace the chaos, and lean into Tampa’s most storied tradition.

From dawn until well after the last bead hits the pavement, the city pulses with music, costumes, cannon fire, and unapologetic fun.

Gasparilla’s 4.5-mile parade is the heart of the celebration and one of the largest in the nation. More than 100 elaborately decorated floats, marching bands, and costumed krewes roll along Bayshore Boulevard, tossing beads and pirate treasure to massive crowds lining the waterfront.

The scale is jaw-dropping, the energy nonstop, and the atmosphere somewhere between Mardi Gras and a full-scale pirate movie, with Tampa’s skyline as the backdrop.

Sunset on the Serengeti:

An After-Hours Wild Escape

📅 Sunday | February 1, 2026 | 5:30 PM
📍 Location: Busch Gardens Tampa

10165 McKinley Dr, Tampa, FL 33612

🖼️ When Downtown Becomes a Living Gallery

As the sun begins to dip and the park transitions into golden hour, Sunset on the Serengeti opens the door to a side of Busch Gardens most guests never see. This exclusive evening experience invites you onto the Serengeti Plain as the day cools, the light softens, and the animals become especially active.

It’s a rare chance to slow down, take it all in, and experience the wild in a more intimate, immersive way.

This isn’t just a safari — it’s a culinary journey set against one of Tampa Bay’s most iconic landscapes. Guests enjoy curated food and drink offerings designed to complement the relaxed, upscale atmosphere of the evening. As giraffes roam nearby and zebras graze in the distance, every bite feels a little more memorable.

Think refined flavors, open views, and the kind of ambiance that only exists at sunset.

Dunedin Saturday Market — Your “Slow Morning, Good Finds” Kind of Day

📅 Saturday | January 31, 2026 | 9:00 AM – 2:00 PM
📍 Location: John R. Lawrence Pioneer Park

Address: 420 Main St, Dunedin, FL 34698

🍓 A Market That Feels Like a Mini Vacation

Across the Bridge

If your ideal weekend plan includes good weather, a walkable downtown, and leaving with a bag full of things you didn’t know you needed, this is your kind of morning. The Dunedin Saturday Market is the perfect excuse to slow down and enjoy a coastal-town rhythm—where browsing turns into exploring, and “just stopping by” turns into staying awhile.

This market has that rare combination of being relaxed and lively at the same time—easy to wander, easy to shop, easy to enjoy.

One of the best parts of this market is the atmosphere. With live music playing while you walk, it doesn’t feel like “errands”… it feels like a Saturday ritual.

Even if you’re not on a mission to shop, it’s still worth going just for the energy—music, sunshine, the smell of fresh food in the air, and that classic Dunedin charm where everything feels a little more relaxed than the rest of the week.

Kenwood Sunday Market (St. Pete) — The “Sunday Reset” You’ll Actually Look Forward To

📅 Sunday | February 1, 2026 | 9:00 AM – 2:00 PM
📍 Location: Location: St Petersburg High School

Address: 2501 5th Ave N, St. Petersburg, FL 33713

🌿 The Kind of Sunday Plan That Feels Like a Win

Some Sundays are for doing nothing… and some Sundays are for doing something that makes you feel like you’ve got your life together without trying too hard. That’s exactly what the Kenwood Sunday Market delivers.

It’s not rushed, it’s not chaotic — it’s that perfect in-between where you can wander, snack, shop, listen to music, and still feel like you’ve got plenty of day left when you leave.

The live music is what makes this market feel less like shopping and more like an experience. It turns the whole space into a low-key Sunday hangout, where even if you’re just there to browse, you’ll end up staying longer than expected.

It’s easygoing, upbeat, and the kind of atmosphere that makes the whole morning feel like a mini event — without needing to be “a whole thing.”

Macro Strength vs. Market Reality: Auditing the Floor of the $1M+ Tier

Tampa closed 2025 as a rare national standout, defying broader economic cooling to finish as one of the strongest regional economies in the United States. With a local economy that has expanded by 43% in recent years and average paychecks rising by 38%, the "macro" story of our region is undeniably robust. From record-breaking tourism—surpassing $1.2 billion in taxable hotel revenue—to a surge in private-sector job growth, Tampa Bay has cemented its status as a premier destination for global capital.

However, a powerhouse economy does not guarantee a frictionless real estate market.

As we audit the final 2025 MLS data for the luxury tier ($1M+ properties), we see the "closed-door" reality of The Great Recalibration. While the region's fundamentals remain rock-solid, the luxury market has hit a point of high-tier resistance. We are providing these numbers to reveal the truth behind the headlines: what happens when one of the nation’s hottest economies meets the cooling effects of high carrying costs, new insurance realities, and evolving regulatory mandates.

In this year-end report, we break down the performance of Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties, providing the hard values behind the shifts in luxury single-family, condo, and townhome volume to show you exactly where the market found its floor in 2025.

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The Luxury Pulse: Key Variables Defining the 2026 Market

To truly grasp the 2025 data, one must understand the specific variables that elite buyers, sellers, and investors are currently prioritizing. In today's market, luxury is no longer defined merely by opulence or square footage; it is defined by security, wellness, and financial resilience.

Here are the primary pillars currently shaping the luxury narrative:

1. The "Fortress" Mentality: Privacy and Security

Privacy has graduated from a standard feature to a primary tier of concern for the modern high-net-worth individual.

• Invisible Security: Buyers are seeking "invisible" security infrastructure that permeates a property, such as biometric access, cloud-managed surveillance with real-time visibility, and purpose-built safe rooms.

• Controlled Access: There is a heightened demand for gated entrances and "lock-and-leave" usability, where building operations can manage service vendors and arrivals with absolute discretion.

2. The Wellness Estate: Health as the Ultimate Amenity

Luxury homes are increasingly viewed as regenerative ecosystems that actively contribute to the owner's physical and mental longevity.

• Holistic Features: Beyond simple home gyms, buyers are looking for dedicated recovery spaces featuring cold plunges, infrared saunas, and medical-grade air and water purification systems (MERV-13+).

• Blue Mind Influence: Proximity to water is being valued for its "Blue Mind" benefits—a scientifically supported state of calm triggered by aquatic environments—making waterfront and marsh-view properties even more desirable for their mental health benefits.

3. The Turnkey Premium: The Value of Time

In 2026, time has become a more valuable asset than ever.

• Construction Fatigue: Due to high construction costs and long permitting timelines (often 3–5 years for coastal projects), buyers are paying a substantial premium for "turnkey" properties that are move-in ready.

• Operational Discipline: For condo and branded residence buyers, the "invisible amenity" of professional management and staffing culture is a non-negotiable. They want a residence that functions with the precision of a five-star hotel.

4. Financial Resilience and Portfolio Strategy

Luxury real estate is increasingly treated as a strategic asset class for wealth preservation rather than just a primary residence.

• All-Cash Dominance: Approximately half of luxury transactions are now all-cash, allowing affluent buyers to sidestep interest rate concerns and negotiate more aggressively.

• Intergenerational Planning: Nearly one in five purchases is now driven by a desire for multi-generational living, with buyers seeking "legacy compounds" that can accommodate aging parents or young children comfortably.

These variables explain why some sectors of our market are thriving while others are cooling. For the modern reader, understanding these shifts is the key to navigating the current recalibration with confidence.

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Hillsborough County — The Flight to Control

Hillsborough County’s 2025 data tells a story of divergence. While the region’s broader economy remains a national leader, the luxury real estate sector is navigating a significant shift in buyer behavior. In 2025, the narrative in Hillsborough was defined by a massive retreat from "managed" high-density living in favor of the stability and privacy of single-family estates.

The "Condo Cliff" and the Search for Control

The most shocking number in this whole report is the 65% drop in luxury condo sales. This didn't happen because people stopped wanting to live in Tampa. It happened because of new Florida safety laws. After a building collapsed in Surfside a few years ago, the state passed laws (like SB-4D) that require older buildings to be inspected and to have plenty of cash saved up for repairs.

The Truth: For a long time, condo boards could vote to "waive" or skip saving money for big repairs to keep monthly fees low. That is now illegal. By the end of 2024 and 2025, these buildings had to finish "Structural Integrity Reserve Studies." Many found out they were millions of dollars short. This led to "Special Assessments"—huge, unexpected bills for owners. Some owners were hit with bills for $50,000 to over $100,000 just to fix things like roofs and foundations. Because of this, luxury buyers are now avoiding condos. They don't want to get stuck with a surprise bill they can't control.

What the Data is Saying:

1. $1M – $2M (The Market Foundation): This is the largest part of the luxury market, but it is currently cooling off. Many buyers in this range are watching their budgets closely due to high insurance costs and interest rates, leading to a 7% drop.

2. $2M – $3M (The Discerning Tier): We saw a 10% dip here. Buyers at this level are being much more selective; they are taking their time to make a deal and expect high-end upgrades for their investment.

3. $4M – $5M (The Mid-Tier Correction): This specific group saw the largest percentage drop for single-family homes at 35%. It appears many buyers at this price point decided to "wait and see" before committing.

4. $5M – $10M (The Signature Success): This is the only tier that grew, jumping by 33%. Wealthy individuals are moving their capital into "Trophy Homes"—significant estates with large parcels of land. They see these properties as a "safe haven" where they maintain total control of the asset.

5. $10M+ (The Peak Collection): This ultra-exclusive level remained unchanged with only two sales. It shows that while the absolute top of the market is stable, it is a very small and slow-moving group of buyers.

The Flight to "Trophy Homes"

Even though most price ranges saw fewer sales, the $5M to $10M range grew by 33%. This tells us something very important: The wealthiest people aren't leaving Hillsborough County. In fact, they are doubling down.

Instead of buying a fancy condo, they are putting their money into "Trophy Homes"—large estates with lots of land and total privacy. They see these big houses as a "safe haven." When you own the whole property, you are the boss. You decide when to fix the roof, which insurance company to use, and how to spend your money. In 2025, control became the ultimate luxury.

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Pinellas County — High Prices and High Risks

While Tampa’s economy is booming, Pinellas County faced some tough "real world" challenges in 2025. In this area, luxury real estate is almost always about living on the coast. But 2025 showed us that buyers are now thinking much harder about the extra costs of living by the water—like high insurance and the need for better storm protection.

The Big Insight: The "Insurance Ghost" and Coastal Safety

The most important thing to notice is that single-family home sales dropped by 10%. A big reason for this is the "Insurance Ghost". In Pinellas, luxury buyers are no longer just looking at a beautiful sunset; they are checking the elevation certificate and the cost of flood insurance before they even make an offer.

If a million-dollar home isn't built to the newest storm codes, it has become much harder to sell. Buyers are looking for "hardened" homes with features like impact windows and reinforced roofs to keep their insurance bills from skyrocketing. Interestingly, condos in Pinellas held up better than in Hillsborough. This is likely because many luxury condos in Pinellas are newer and already meet the strict new safety laws that are scaring buyers away from older buildings.

What the Data is Saying:

1. $1M – $2M (The Lifestyle Foundation): This tier saw a 9% drop in sales. Buyers in this bracket are the most affected by rising mortgage rates and the higher cost of daily coastal living.

2. $2M – $3M (The Refined Choice): This group saw a significant 28% drop. Because there are more homes available now, these buyers are taking their time and refusing to pay a premium for properties that aren't in perfect condition.

3. $3M – $5M (The Premier Expansion): These two tiers actually grew! This shows a strong group of buyers is still very interested in high-end Pinellas homes, as long as the property is modern and ready for immediate move-in.

4. $5M – $10M (The High-End Recalibration): Sales dropped by 30%. The wealthiest buyers in this range appear to be "pausing" to see where insurance costs and market prices land in the coming year.

5. $10M+ (The Pinnacle Collection): We saw a total freeze with zero sales in the ultra-luxury category for 2025. At the absolute top of the market, the "wait-and-see" mood is currently at its strongest.

The "Elevation & Mitigation" Shift

In Hillsborough, the story was about "Trophy Homes." In Pinellas, the story is about resilience. Even though the very top of the market ($10M+) saw a total freeze, the growth in the $3M to $5M range tells us that the Pinellas buyer is still active—but they have changed what they value.

Instead of just buying for the location, they are putting their money into "hardened" properties. These are homes built with higher elevations and modern storm protection. Buyers see these homes as a "safe haven" because they offer lower insurance risks and more peace of mind. In 2025, knowing your home could withstand the elements became a new kind of luxury. In Pinellas, being "safe and dry" is now just as important as having a waterfront view.

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Key Insights: The Big Difference?

1. The "Condo Cliff" vs. "Newer and Safer"

The biggest difference is in the condo market. Hillsborough saw a massive 65% drop because many of its luxury condos are older and facing those expensive new safety laws. Buyers are running away from the risk of surprise repair bills. In Pinellas, many luxury condos are newer and built to modern storm codes, so buyers feel much safer putting their money there.

2. The "Trophy Home" Battle

Hillsborough is currently winning the battle for "Trophy Homes" (homes over $5M). Sales in this top tier jumped by 33%, while in Pinellas, they dropped by 30%. This tells us that today’s wealthiest buyers are looking for control and privacy. They are choosing large, private estates in Hillsborough where they can control their own insurance and maintenance costs, rather than coastal mansions in Pinellas where insurance prices are much higher.

3. Negotiating Power is Everywhere

In both counties, the "take it or leave it" attitude from sellers is gone. Almost 60% of luxury homes in our region are now selling for below the asking price. This means that no matter which county you are in, if you

The "Closed Doors" Reality — Hidden Forces

To truly understand 2025, we have to look at more than just sales numbers. While Tampa’s economy is strong, two "invisible" forces—Interest Rates and Insurance—are acting as the real gatekeepers for luxury real estate.

1. The "Golden Handcuff" Effect

Many luxury homeowners are currently in "Golden Handcuffs." They have mortgage rates between 3% and 4% from a few years ago. Even though they might want to move, they don't want to trade that low rate for a new one closer to 6.5%.

• The Result: This has kept the number of homes for sale lower than usual, which has prevented a total "price crash" despite fewer buyers being in the market.

2. The "Insurance Ghost" is Now a Decision-Maker

Insurance is no longer just a small monthly bill; it has become a deal-breaker. In 2025, Florida’s average homeowners insurance premium rose to over $6,000 per year, which is triple the national average.

• The Insight: For the first time, we are seeing luxury buyers walk away from a deal after they see the insurance quote. In coastal Pinellas, insurance can now make up 15% to 20% of the total monthly cost of owning a home. This is why homes that are not "hardened" with new roofs or impact windows are sitting on the market much longer.

💡Craig’s Take: Where the Smart Money Is Moving in 2026

For Buyers: Buy Control, Not Just a Property

The biggest shift in this market isn’t pricing — it’s risk awareness. Buyers are no longer just asking, “Is this a good deal?” They’re asking, “Can I control my future costs?” Insurance volatility, condo reserve requirements, and surprise assessments have changed how smart buyers underwrite decisions.

Insider Moves Buyers Are Making

• Prioritizing single-family homes or newer construction where insurance and maintenance risks are easier to manage.

• Treating condo purchases like balance sheets: reviewing reserve studies, upcoming assessments, building age, and construction type before even touring.

• Targeting sellers who bought near the peak and now value certainty over top dollar, creating leverage for concessions or price corrections.

• Stress-testing monthly payments assuming insurance and taxes rise, not stay flat.

How Kincheloe Group Helps Buyers

• We break down the true monthly ownership cost before you commit — not after you’re under contract.

• We flag hidden risk early (insurance exposure, deferred maintenance, weak reserves) so you don’t buy a problem disguised as a “deal.”

• We position offers strategically around seller motivation, not list price, to protect your downside.

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For Sellers: Remove Risk and You’ll Protect Your Price

Sellers aren’t losing leverage because demand vanished — they’re losing leverage because buyers are pricing in uncertainty. Homes that feel risky get discounted. Homes that feel predictable still sell.

Insider Moves Sellers Are Making

• Completing pre-listing inspections to eliminate surprise objections.

• Documenting insurance mitigation features (roof age, wind ratings, flood zone clarity).

• Pricing based on net buyer cost, not just comparable sales.

• For condos, addressing reserve and assessment concerns upfront instead of reacting to them mid-negotiation.

How Kincheloe Group Helps Sellers

• We reposition your home around certainty and defensibility, not hype.

• We help you decide what to fix, what to disclose, and what to price around so buyers don’t over-discount out of fear.

• We anticipate buyer objections before they surface and neutralize them early.

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For Investors: Stability Beats Speculation in This Cycle

Capital hasn’t left Tampa — it’s just gotten more selective. The data shows that demand is still there, but affordability caps and operating costs are forcing investors to rethink assumptions.

Insider Moves Investors Are Making

• Favoring assets with durable tenant demand tied to stable job sectors.

• Avoiding deals that require aggressive rent growth to pencil.

• Stress-testing returns against insurance increases and slower leasing velocity.

• Targeting “middle-market” assets that balance demand with affordability, not extremes.

How Kincheloe Group Helps Investors

• We underwrite deals based on real operating conditions, not best-case scenarios.

• We identify submarkets where demand is supported by employment, not speculation.

• We help structure acquisitions that perform even if rent growth stalls or costs rise.

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🔑 Final Thoughts: A Strong Market That Rewards Strategy

Tampa closed 2025 from a position of strength — but strength doesn’t eliminate friction, it changes where it shows up. The next phase of this market won’t reward blind optimism. It will reward clarity, preparation, and control.

Buyers who understand their full cost of ownership will outperform. Sellers who reduce uncertainty will defend value. Investors who prioritize durability over upside will preserve capital.

This isn’t a market to fear — but it is a market to navigate intelligently.

The edge in 2026 won’t come from timing the market perfectly.
It will come from understanding where risk has moved — and acting before everyone else does.

A Message From Craig

Let’s make this week count —

We put a lot of pride and care into curating these updates each week — making sure they feel useful, inspiring, and genuinely connected to the places we love. If there’s ever a topic or neighborhood you want to see more of, just hit reply and tell me. This newsletter is built with you in mind, and I’m grateful you’re here.

— Craig