The Boy Is Mine Tour — Brandy, Monica, Kelly Rowland & Muni Long Live in Tampa

📅 Friday | December 12, 2025 | 8:00 PM
📍Location: Benchmark International Arena 401 Channelside Dr, Tampa, FL 33602 

✨ A Night of Iconic Voices & R&B Royalty

It’s not often that Tampa gets a moment like this — a gathering of four powerhouse women whose music shaped decades of R&B. On December 12, the Benchmark International Arena transforms into a sanctuary of nostalgia, vocal mastery, and modern artistry as Brandy and Monica take the stage together, joined by Kelly Rowland and Muni Long for The Boy Is Mine Tour.

This is more than a concert — it’s a cultural reset, a celebration of the past and present of R&B performed by four artists who’ve each carved their own lane in music history.

Benchmark International Arena is the perfect backdrop — a space built for big nights, big voices, and big memories. Expect a high-production experience, full-band arrangements, immersive lighting, and the kind of live vocals that remind you why these artists remain icons.

Whether you're coming for the nostalgia, the vocal fireworks, or the chance to witness R&B history in motion, this is the show Tampa will be talking about long after the final note fades.

Trans-Siberian Orchestra: A Night When Christmas Comes Alive

📅 Sunday | December 14, 2025 | 3:00 PM
📍Location: Benchmark International Arena 401 Channelside Dr, Tampa, FL 33602

🌟 A Holiday Spectacle That Will Shake the Arena

On December 14, the Benchmark International Arena will transform into a world of swirling snow, soaring guitars, and symphonic storytelling as Trans-Siberian Orchestra brings their legendary production of The Ghosts of Christmas Eve: The Best of TSO & More to Tampa. This isn’t just a concert—it’s a theatrical experience that blends rock opera intensity with cinematic visuals, dazzling pyrotechnics, and one of the most powerful ensembles in live music.

Families, longtime fans, and first-timers will step inside the arena and feel the energy shift instantly: the stage glowing with winter blues, the lighting rig starting its slow movement, and the unmistakable hum of anticipation that only TSO can generate. By the time the first notes ring out, the entire room will feel like it has been swept into its own Christmas universe.

This year’s tour will center on the beloved story of The Ghosts of Christmas Eve—a heart-tugging holiday tale told through TSO’s signature fusion of orchestra, choir, lasers, and electric guitar. The performance will follow a runaway girl’s journey into an abandoned theater, where music becomes the bridge between memory, hope, and rediscovery.

As always, the production will evolve from scene to scene, with musicians appearing across the stage platforms, spotlights carving through the air, and the narrative unfolding through both song and spectacular visuals. Tampa audiences will feel the sweep of the story as it moves from soft, emotional ballads to the full-throttle, arena-shaking crescendos TSO is celebrated for.

Casa Cami — Rooftop Evenings, Elevated Flavor

📍 Location: The Current Hotel Rooftop, 2545 N Rocky Point Dr, Tampa, FL

🌵 Where Modern Mexico Meets the Sky

Casa Cami will set the stage for a night that feels both luxurious and effortlessly inviting. As you step onto the rooftop of The Current Hotel, you’ll be greeted by sweeping waterfront views, warm twilight light, and an atmosphere that blends modern design with the comforting soul of Mexican-inspired cuisine.

You’ll be drawn into a dining experience built around fresh ingredients, coastal flavors, and cocktails crafted with the same precision as the menu. This will be the kind of evening where conversations linger, plates are shared, and Tampa’s skyline becomes the backdrop to it all.

Once seated, you’ll explore a lineup of handcrafted dishes — each inspired by traditional Mexican culinary techniques but elevated with contemporary flair. Expect vibrant flavors, elevated tortillas, fresh seafood interpretations, and cocktails that balance brightness, spice, and a refined edge.

Every sip and bite will mirror the restaurant’s philosophy: pared-back elegance with world-class craftsmanship.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

📅 Thursday | December 11, 2025 | 8:15 PM

📍 Location: Raymond James Stadium - Tampa Sports Authority 4201 N Dale Mabry Hwy, Tampa, FL 33607

🎇 Under the Lights: A Primetime NFC South Showdown

Get ready, Tampa — Raymond James Stadium will roar back to life as the Buccaneers face division rivals the Atlanta Falcons under Thursday Night Football lights. With playoff implications always on the line in December, this matchup arrives with all the drama, intensity, and rivalry energy fans wait for all season.

This isn’t just another game on the schedule. It’s a battle for momentum. A test of grit. A night where the stadium feels alive from the parking lots to the pirate ship — buzzing with cannons, chants, and the unmistakable December football tension that only Tampa Bay knows how to deliver.

Whether you’re yelling from the stands, celebrating near the pirate ship, or taking in the stadium views under cool December skies, you’ll be part of a game with implications far beyond the scoreboard.

Come cheer on the Buccaneers — Tampa is counting on you.

The Nutcracker Ballet — Tampa City Ballet

📅 Saturday | December 13, 2025 | 7:30 PM – 9:00 PM
📍 Location: New Tampa Performing Arts Center 8550 Hunters Village Rd, Tampa, FL 33647

🌟 A Timeless Tale Reimagined for Tampa Bay

This December, Tampa City Ballet will once again invite audiences into the enchanting world of The Nutcracker—a global holiday tradition that has captured hearts for generations. As the lights dim and the orchestra swells, families will be transported into Clara’s wonder-filled journey… where toy soldiers come alive, snowflakes dance in shimmering unison, and the Sugar Plum Fairy reigns with elegance and grace.

This production will offer a fresh, contemporary interpretation while honoring the classical choreography that makes the ballet a seasonal treasure. The stage will be alive with vibrant costumes, dazzling sets, and emotionally rich performances that bring new depth to the beloved story.

Under the intimate setting of the New Tampa Performing Arts Center, this year’s staging will highlight polished storytelling, expressive movement, and immersive design elements that elevate the fantasy. Audience members of all ages will step into a world where magic feels real, traditions feel renewed, and holiday joy becomes something you can see, hear, and feel.

From the sweeping Waltz of the Flowers to the dreamlike Land of Sweets, guests will experience the perfect balance of classic ballet, theatrical flair, and community artistry. It’s a production crafted to inspire both first-time viewers and seasoned Nutcracker lovers.

Tampa Art Party – Red Ornament

📅 Friday | December 12, 2025 | 6:00 PM – 9:00 PM
📍 Location: Wulfaven Brewing – Tampa | 10828 Perez Dr, Tampa, FL 33618

🎄 A Sip, a Stroke, and a Spark of Holiday Magic

Step into an evening where festive cheer meets creative joy. As Wulfaven Brewing fills with the scent of seasonal brews and warm holiday energy, you’ll settle into a cozy corner of Tampa’s favorite craft brewery to paint one of the season’s most iconic symbols—the luminous Red Ornament.

Whether you’re a seasoned artist or someone who hasn’t held a paintbrush since grade school, this night is designed to wrap you in comfort, creativity, and just the right amount of holiday sparkle. With expert guidance, you’ll bring this classic ornament to life one brushstroke at a time, surrounded by twinkling lights, friendly faces, and the unmistakable buzz of December magic.

Wulfaven Brewing sets the perfect stage for this festive creative escape. As you paint, sip on handcrafted brews and enjoy the warm, laid-back vibe of one of Tampa’s rising brewery gems. Every color you add will feel a little richer, every highlight a little brighter in an atmosphere built for good times and artistic play.

This isn’t just a paint class — it’s a holiday hangout, a creative reset, and a chance to kick off the season with something beautiful you made yourself.

Advent Health Comfort + Joy Holiday Market

📅 Saturday | December 13, 2025 | 10:00 AM – 2:00 PM
📍 Location: 2435 Bexley Village Dr, Land O' Lakes, FL 34638

✨ A Holiday Market Wrapped in Warmth & Community

On December 13, the front lawn of Pasco County’s Care Pavilion will turn into a festive village overflowing with lights, music, and the unmistakable feeling that the holidays have truly arrived. As guests wander through the lawn, they’ll be surrounded by the comforting sights of artisan booths, seasonal décor, and the joyful atmosphere that makes this time of year feel so special. With more than 40 local makers, this market will become the kind of place where you’ll want to slow down, savor the moment, and discover gifts that tell a story.

This event isn’t just a market — it’s a holiday moment. Families will enjoy the cheerful atmosphere, neighbors will gather, and visitors will feel the community spirit that makes Bexley such a beloved part of Land O’ Lakes. Whether you’re checking names off your gift list or simply looking to soak in the holiday cheer, the event will offer something that leaves you feeling merry and at ease.

LagoonSide Market — December Edition

📅 Sunday | December 14, 2025 | 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
📍 Location: Mirada Lagoon, 31461 Mirada Blvd, San Antonio, FL 33576

🎨 A Market Wrapped in Holiday Magic

This December, the stunning Mirada Lagoon will transform into a festive makers’ marketplace, glowing with the warmth and creativity of local Tampa Bay artisans. As the sun dips over the water, you’ll step into a lively open-air experience where holiday spirit blends with handcrafted artistry, global flavors, and the unmistakable buzz of community gathering for a seasonal celebration. LagoonSide Market will feel like the perfect December afternoon—laid-back, scenic, and filled with one-of-a-kind finds.

You’ll wander through a curated lineup of 40+ local vendors showcasing everything from handcrafted jewelry and clothing to unique art pieces, home goods, pet treats, and beautifully packaged artisan foods ready to take home. December’s market will carry that extra touch of holiday charm—locally made gifts, small-batch seasonal goodies, and creative offerings you won’t find in big box stores. Each booth will add its own spark, creating a marketplace that feels personal, thoughtful, and wonderfully Tampa Bay.

Source: Trend calculations derived from a 90-day rolling average of StellarMLS activity compared to same period in 2024. Inventory and DOM estimates are corroborated with active listing volumes and price reductions tracked weekly.

📊 Market Movement at a Glance

(90-day rolling average as of December 2025)

Hillsborough County’s December 2025 market reflects a calmer pace than the rush of 2021–2022, when low interest rates and heavy migration made homes sell in days.

Compared to 2019 — when the county had fewer residents, fewer homes, and lower annual sales according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Redfin Data Center — the total size of today’s market is still larger. But the current 90-day rolling averages from REALIST show that momentum has meaningfully slowed. Closed sales over the last 90 days averaged 1,632 per month (down 14%), and pending sales averaged 2,231 (down 10%), while active listings averaged 7,521, a 7% increase compared to last year’s same 90-day period. Homes are also taking longer to sell, with Days on Market rising to 68 days (up 12%). These 90-day trends confirm what many have felt on the ground: buyers are pulling back, sellers are listing more cautiously, and overall activity is cooling from last year’s pace.

A major reason for this slowdown is affordability. Higher interest rates, higher insurance premiums, and higher monthly payments have made owning a home much harder than it was during 2020–2022. The median Sale-to-List Price Ratio has even slipped to 94%, showing that buyers are negotiating more often, and sellers are adjusting pricing earlier in the process.

But the story doesn’t stop at affordability. Hillsborough is also feeling the full force of what many call the “locked-in effect.” Thousands of local homeowners refinanced during the pandemic into 2.5%–3.5% mortgage rates. Replacing those loans with today’s 6–7% loans dramatically increases monthly payments, and for many families, the math simply doesn’t work. On top of that, long-term homeowners enjoy much lower property taxes, and moving would reset those taxes to today’s higher values. This combination keeps potential sellers in place, which is why new listings are down — the homes entering the market are primarily those from owners who must move, not those who simply want to.

Migration has also cooled. Tampa’s population boom of 2021–2022 brought enormous demand into Hillsborough, but census migration indicators show that the inflow slowed significantly by 2024–2025. With fewer new households arriving each month, the natural demand pipeline is not as strong as it was just a few years ago.

Layered over all of this is economic uncertainty. When the broader economy feels unsettled — whether from inflation, interest rate fluctuations, or job-market concerns — buyers and sellers tend to pause. Human psychology plays a real role: people don’t make major housing decisions when they feel unsure about what comes next. These hesitations show up clearly in the 90-day data, where both showing activity and contract volume have slipped.

Policy conversations also reveal how unusual and strained the market has become. At the federal level, ideas such as a 50-year mortgage or the ability to port your existing mortgage rate to the next home have surfaced as possible solutions to ease the locked-in effect. At the state level, Governor DeSantis has proposed eliminating property taxes on owner-occupied homes — a change that could remove one of the biggest barriers preventing long-time owners from moving.

Altogether, these forces — affordability strain, locked-in homeowners, cooling migration, and a cautious consumer mindset — have created a rare and delicate balance: rising inventory, slower demand, and longer market times, but no signs of distress. The market isn’t weakening — it’s recalibrating after several overheated years, waiting for affordability to improve and confidence to return.

Affordability Strain — “When the Numbers Don’t Work, Buyers Pause”

• Mortgage-to-Income Ratio: 36.5
  This shows how much of a household’s income goes toward a mortgage payment. Experts like the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies (https://www.jchs.harvard.edu) say the safe range is 28–30%. At 36.5%, buying is expensive for most families.

• Value-to-Income Ratio: 4.3
  This compares the price of a typical home to the average household       income. A ratio above 4 means the area is getting harder to afford.

• Buy vs Rent Differential: 28.1
  Shows how much more money it costs each month to own a home instead of renting one. A number like 28.1% does NOT mean owning is 28 times more expensive — it means owning costs about 28% more per month than renting a similar home. In healthy or normal markets, this number is usually much lower, often in the 5% to 10% range, where the monthly cost of owning and renting are closer together. At 28.1%, Hillsborough is far above that normal range, which tells us that many families save a meaningful amount of money by renting rather than buying. This gap helps explain why fewer people are stepping into the market right now.

• Payment Burden Rising:
  Higher interest rates continue to make it harder for buyers to qualify, and even small rate changes can have a big effect on affordability. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predicts that mortgage rates could fall into the mid-6% range in 2026, and Fannie Mae forecasts a similar move to the 5.9%–6.1% range. A drop like this matters because each 1% reduction in mortgage rates can increase buying power by about 10%, and historically brings millions of additional buyers back into the national market.

For example, Hillsborough’s mortgage-to-income ratio is currently 36.5%, which is far above the healthy 28–30% range. If rates fell from today’s high-6% to the mid-6% range expected by MBA and Fannie Mae, that ratio could drop several percentage points — bringing many families closer to qualifying and reducing monthly payments by hundreds of dollars. In simple terms: lower rates won’t fix everything, but they could make owning a home feel realistic again for a large group of buyers who are sitting on the sidelines.

County-to-County Comparison Closing

Compared with Pinellas and Pasco, Hillsborough sits in the middle of the Tampa Bay housing spectrum. Pinellas is dealing with the highest affordability strain, with a 40% mortgage burden and 6 months of inventory, which is why sales there are slowing more sharply. Pasco remains the region’s most affordable market, but even Pasco is cooling, with a 37.5% mortgage burden and rising inventory as new construction meets softer demand. Hillsborough’s 36.5% mortgage burden and 4 months of inventory show that buyers here are stretched but still active. In short: Pinellas is softening from high prices, Pasco is softening from cautious buyers, and Hillsborough is softening from affordability pressure — giving buyers more time and choices across all three counties.

🔢 Key Market Metrics – as of December 2025

(Single-month snapshot of six core metrics; data sourced from Stellar MLS and Realist.)

Term Explainers:

• Median List Price: The middle asking price of all homes for sale. Half are listed higher, half lower.

• Median Close Price: The middle price buyers actually pay at closing.

• Days to Contract (DTC): The number of days it takes for a seller to receive an accepted offer.

• Days to Close: The number of days it takes to finish the sale after the       offer is accepted.

• Sales-to-List Ratio (SLR): Shows how close the final sale price is to the listing price. A lower number means buyers are negotiating more.

• Months of Inventory (MOI): Measures how long it would take to sell all homes on the market if no new ones were listed.

  • 4 months = a more balanced market between buyers and sellers.

Initial Findings

• List and sale prices fell, which shows sellers are adjusting to slower       buyer demand.

• Days to Contract increased, meaning buyers are taking longer to make   decisions.

• Days to Close stayed the same, showing that lending and closing timelines remain steady.

• Sales-to-List Ratio dipped, telling us buyers are successfully negotiating more.

• 4 Months of Inventory means buyers now have more choices and sellers face more competition. It might seem surprising that Months of Inventory   (MOI) stayed the same year-over-year, especially since closed sales are     down 14% and active listings are up 7%. But this can happen because MOI is calculated using both the number of homes for sale and the speed at which buyers are purchasing them. When active listings rise at nearly the same pace that sales are slowing, the two numbers can ‘cancel each other out,’ keeping the months of supply steady. In simple terms: even though fewer homes are selling and more homes are listed, they are changing in similar amounts, which is why MOI can stay flat. This shows the market is cooling, but not enough in either direction to shift the supply balance yet.

Craig’s Take

🌎 General Market Insights for All

The market in Hillsborough County is not crashing — it’s adjusting. Buyers are being more careful because owning a home takes up too much of the average family’s income. A 36.5 mortgage-to-income ratio is a major burden, and that alone explains why pending sales are dropping. Inventory is climbing to healthier levels, and homes are staying on the market longer. This gives buyers more time to think and negotiate. For sellers, the message is simple: the days of quick sales and big bidding wars are over. For buyers, the market finally allows breathing room. And for the first time in years, balance is returning.

🛒 For Buyers — “More Choices, More Time, More Power”

Even though buying is expensive, the market finally gives buyers more control. With 4 months of inventory, more listings are hitting the market, and sellers know it. Homes staying on the market for 68 days means buyers don’t have to rush. The 97% Sales-to-List Ratio shows that buyers are negotiating successfully. You still need a strong budget, but the days of paying way over asking are behind us.

Action Steps:

• Work with an agent who is excellent at knowing how to discover the seller’s motivation. There are two types of sellers right now. 1. Those that must sell and will do what it takes to sell. 2. Those that are only interested in selling if they can get a specific price. If they don’t get that price that will remove the listing from the market and stay put.

• Ask for a seller credit to lower your mortgage rate.

• Look at homes on the market 40+ days — these sellers are more flexible. Especially if they fall into seller number one category.

• Always do inspections — you now have the leverage to request repairs. And/or credits for repairs.

• Compare renting vs buying carefully; monthly costs may still favor renting.

🏠 For Sellers — “Price Smart or Sit Long”

Sellers today must understand that buyers are stretched. A home that is priced too high will sit, even if it’s beautiful. The increase in Days on Market and drop in pending sales proves it. Smart sellers price according to today’s conditions, not yesterday’s boom years. Homes that are updated, clean, and priced right still sell — just at a calmer pace.

Action Steps:

• Set a price that fits the market, not past expectations.

• Understand the supply and demand for the applicable pricing bands in your area for similar properties. To do that you need to work with an agent who can do a custom supply and demand analysis.

• Improve curb appeal and presentation — buyers compare more homes now.

• Offer incentives such as closing cost help or a rate buydown.

• Watch your showings and make adjustments quickly. You want to be ahead of the market not be chasing as it continues to decline.

💰 For Investors — “Pick Carefully, Think Long-Term”

Investor activity has slowed because profits are tighter than before, and rent growth has cooled. But the high buy-vs-rent gap (28.1) shows strong renter demand, which helps long-term investors. More inventory also means more chances to find value, especially in homes that need repairs or have below-market rents. The key now is smart underwriting and buying properties that can be improved.

Action Steps:

• Focus on properties with under-market rents.

• Look for homes listed for a long time — they may accept lower offers.

• Run realistic cash flow numbers — don’t expect 2021-style returns.

• Prefer long-term holds over quick flips unless the deal is exceptional.

🧠 Final Thoughts

Hillsborough County’s housing market is moving into a more normal, balanced state. Affordability challenges are slowing demand, inventory is rising, and sellers are adjusting to new expectations. Buyers finally have room to negotiate, sellers must price wisely, and investors must analyze deals more carefully. Even with these shifts, the market remains stable. This is a transition, not a downturn — and understanding these changes will help everyone stay ahead in 2026.

Source: Trend calculations derived from a 90-day rolling average of StellarMLS activity compared to same period in 2024. Inventory and DOM estimates are corroborated with active listing volumes and price reductions tracked weekly.

📊 Market Movement at a Glance

(90-day rolling average as of December 2025)

Pinellas County’s December 2025 market is moving at a slower, more cautious pace compared with the frenzy of 2021–2022, when low mortgage rates and strong migration pushed homes to sell almost instantly.

Compared to 2019 — when the county had fewer households, lower inventory, and lower annual sales according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Redfin Data Center — today’s market is still operating on a larger scale. But the latest 90-day rolling averages from REALIST confirm a clear cooling trend: closed sales averaged 1,338 per month (down 11%), pending sales averaged 1,811 (down 4%), and active listings averaged 8,164, which despite showing a 9% downward trend from the previous quarter, still reflects a much looser market than Pinellas has seen in years. At the same time, Days on Market has climbed to 81 days (up 14%), signaling that buyers are moving slowly and weighing affordability more carefully than before. These combined 90-day values make the shift easy to see: Pinellas is experiencing softer demand and slower movement than last year.

Affordability pressure is hitting Pinellas the hardest of all three Tampa Bay counties. Home prices remain high relative to local incomes, causing the mortgage-to-income ratio to soar to 40%, well above the healthy 28–30% level. This is one of the clearest reasons buyers are pulling back. Even with inventory at 6 months, one of the highest levels Pinellas has seen in several years, the monthly payment burden is too steep for many would-be buyers. This affordability stress ties directly to the rising Days on Market and the smaller number of incoming offers.

Pinellas also shows a distinct version of the “locked-in effect.” While Hillsborough’s version is driven mostly by ultra-low pandemic mortgage rates, Pinellas’ version is tied just as much to long-term homeownership patterns. A large share of Pinellas homeowners have lived in their homes for 10, 20, or even 30+ years. Many enjoy significantly lower property taxes due to Save-Our-Homes caps, meaning that selling their home resets their tax bill to today’s much higher levels. When combined with the prospect of replacing a 3% mortgage rate with a 6–7% rate, many owners simply decide not to move unless they absolutely must. As a result, a meaningful part of the inventory growth is coming from estate sales, relocations, and life-event moves — not discretionary sellers.

Migration, once a major driver of demand in 2021–2022, has also softened.

Federal migration indicators show Florida’s inflow slowing noticeably by 2024–2025. Because Pinellas is land-constrained and already densely populated, changes in migration flow have an outsized impact. With fewer newcomers entering the county, the pressure that once pushed homes off the market quickly has eased.

Economic uncertainty adds another layer. When people are unsure about inflation, interest rates, or the wider economy, they delay major decisions — especially in a high-price market like Pinellas. This hesitation shows clearly in the 90-day numbers: slower contract activity, longer DOM, and a Sale-to-List Price Ratio holding at 93%, suggesting sellers are adjusting prices earlier or accepting modest negotiations.

Government policy ideas reflect the scale of affordability challenges. Concepts like a 50-year mortgage or portable interest rates — discussed at the federal level — aim to address the national freeze caused by high monthly payments. At the state level, proposals to eliminate property taxes for owner-occupied homes highlight how burdensome moving can be for long-time owners.

Taken together, the data and conditions show a market undergoing a meaningful reset. Pinellas remains deeply desirable for its coastal lifestyle, but high prices, slower migration, and stretched affordability have created a market where buyers are cautious, sellers are selective, and homes take longer to move. The market is not distressed — it is adjusting after several years of unnatural acceleration, waiting for affordability and confidence to improve.

Affordability Strain — “The Biggest Problem Is the Monthly Payment”

• Mortgage-to-Income Ratio: 40.0%
  Families are spending far more than the recommended 28–30% of their income on mortgage payments, according to the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies (https://www.jchs.harvard.edu).

• Value-to-Income Ratio: 4.8
  Home prices remain almost 5 times higher than the average household       income, making ownership difficult.

• Buy vs Rent Differential: 25.6%
  A number like 25.6% does NOT mean owning is 25 times more expensive — it means owning costs about 25% more per month than renting a similar home. In a balanced or ‘normal’ market, this number is closer to 5% to 10%, meaning the monthly cost of renting and owning is not far apart. But at 25.6%, Pinellas is well above that healthy range, which explains why many families feel renting is the better financial choice right now. When the monthly cost gap gets this wide, fewer people can afford to make the jump into homeownership.

• Payment Pressure Rising:
  Higher interest rates are one of the main reasons buyers in Pinellas     are struggling, and even a small drop could make a big difference. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects mortgage rates to fall into the mid-6% range in 2026, and Fannie Mae predicts rates around

  5.9%–6.1%. This matters because every 1% drop in interest rates can increase buying power by roughly 10%, which allows millions more buyers nationwide to qualify for a home.

Right now, Pinellas has one of the highest affordability pressures in Tampa Bay, with a 40% mortgage-to-income ratio, far above the healthy 28–30% range. If rates drop into the mid-6% range like MBA and Fannie Mae expect, that burden could fall enough to bring many families closer to qualifying for a loan, while also lowering monthly payments by hundreds of dollars. This shift won’t completely solve affordability, but it would open the door for many more buyers who simply can’t afford to enter the market today.

County-to-County Comparison Closing

When comparing Pinellas to Hillsborough and Pasco, the differences become clear. Pinellas faces the highest affordability challenges in the region, with a 40% mortgage burden and 6 months of inventory — the biggest supply buildup among the three counties. Hillsborough also shows slowing demand, with 4 months of inventory and a 36.5% mortgage burden, but still maintains steadier movement thanks to its larger buyer pool. Pasco remains the most affordable of the three, with a lower buy-vs-rent gap and a fast-growing suburban population, even though it too is cooling. Pinellas slows from high pricing, Hillsborough slows from affordability limits, and Pasco slows from buyer caution — but all three point to a more balanced Tampa Bay market heading into 2026.

🔢 Key Market Metrics – as of December 2025

(Single-month snapshot of six core metrics; data sourced from Stellar MLS and Realist.)

Term Explainers:

• Median List Price: The typical asking price of homes for sale.

• Median Close Price: The typical final price buyers actually pay.

• Days to Contract (DTC): How long it takes for a home to get an accepted offer.

• Days to Close: Time from contract to final closing paperwork.

• Sales-to-List Ratio (SLR): Shows how much buyers negotiate compared to the asking price.

• Months of Inventory (MOI): Shows how many months it would take to sell all homes if no new ones came on the market.

  • 6 months = balanced to slightly buyer-friendly market.

Initial Findings

• Prices fell year-over-year, which shows the market is easing after years of fast growth.

• Homes take longer to get offers, meaning buyers have more time and more choices.

• Days to Close rising shows that slower financing and inspections are common in buyer-driven markets.

• Sales-to-List Ratio staying flat means sellers are adjusting prices earlier, before negotiating.

• 6 Months of Inventory means buyers now have real negotiating power.

It may seem confusing that Pinellas shows a higher Months of Inventory (MOI) even when sales and listings are not changing at dramatic rates. But MOI is based on both how many homes are available and how quickly buyers are purchasing them. In this case, active listings have climbed, and at the same time homes are taking longer to sell. When supply rises while demand slows, the math pushes MOI higher — even if each individual shift seems small. In simple terms: more homes are sitting on the market while fewer buyers are stepping forward, so the supply of homes lasts longer. This is why MOI can rise noticeably even without a huge spike in new listings or a massive drop in sales.

Craig’s Take

🌎 General Market Insights for All

Pinellas County is in a calm, slower market. Homes are taking longer to sell, buyers are being careful, and affordability is the biggest challenge. With a 40% mortgage-to-income ratio, many families simply can’t afford to buy, even when they want to. Yet the market is not weak — it’s balancing. A jump to 6 months of inventory gives buyers breathing room, but the county’s limited land and strong demand for coastal living help prevent major price drops. What we are seeing is a “reset” toward normal conditions after several years of overheated activity. Buyers now have options, and sellers must treat pricing as a strategy, not a guess.

🛒 For Buyers — “More Choices, Less Pressure, Better Deals”

Pinellas is finally a place where buyers can slow down and think before making an offer. Homes now sit an average of 81 days, and with 6 months of inventory, buyers have more negotiating room. Prices are lower than last year, and renting is still cheaper, which gives many families time to prepare financially. If you’re ready to buy, this is one of the best environments in years to negotiate seller help or secure a good price.

Action Steps:

• Ask for closing cost help or a rate buydown.

• Look at homes that have been listed 60+ days — these sellers are often ready to deal.

• Do full inspections; you now have room to request repairs.

• Compare buying vs renting carefully since renting may still cost less monthly.

🏠 For Sellers — “Pricing Is the Most Important Decision You Will Make”

The Pinellas market is still strong long-term, but pricing now matters more than anything. With buyers feeling financial pressure and more homes on the market, sellers who overprice will sit for months. The increase in Days on Market and the rise in Days to Close show that buyers are taking their time. Homes that are clean, updated, and priced correctly still sell — they just sell at a calmer pace.

Action Steps:

• Price based on today’s slower demand, not last year’s sales.

• Make sure your home shows well — buyers are comparing more homes.

• Offer incentives like closing cost help when needed.

• Adjust price early if showings are slow.

💰 For Investors — “Pick the Right Property, Not Just Any Property”

Investors aren’t moving as quickly as they did during the pandemic, but Pinellas still attracts them because of strong renter demand and limited land. With prices down and inventory up, investors can find solid long-term deals — but only with careful math. Flips are harder because profit margins are thinner. But long-term rentals and value-add properties still perform well, especially near job centers and the beaches.

Action Steps:

• Focus on cash-flow positive properties, not speculation.

• Look for homes listed a long time — sellers may accept lower offers.

• Choose areas with strong rental demand.

• Build repair costs into your budget; older Pinellas homes often need updates.

🧠 Final Thoughts

Pinellas County ends 2025 with a market that is slowing but still strong underneath. Affordability is a major challenge, but demand for coastal living keeps long-term stability in place. Buyers finally have leverage, sellers must be realistic, and investors must choose carefully. This is not a downturn — it is a healthier, more balanced housing market. And as we move into 2026, the people who understand these changes will make the smartest moves.

Source: Trend calculations derived from a 90-day rolling average of StellarMLS activity compared to same period in 2024. Inventory and DOM estimates are corroborated with active listing volumes and price reductions tracked weekly.

📊 Market Movement at a Glance

(90-day rolling average as of December 2025)

Pasco County’s December 2025 market looks noticeably calmer than the rapid expansion seen during 2021–2022, when low interest rates, strong migration into Tampa Bay, and a boom in new construction pushed housing activity well above historical norms.

Compared with 2019 — when Pasco had fewer households, fewer newly built homes, and lower annual sales according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Redfin Data Center — today’s market is still operating on a larger footprint. But the latest 90-day rolling averages from REALIST make the cooling unmistakable. Closed sales have averaged 1,079 per month (down 16%), pending sales averaged 1,416 (down 10%), and active listings averaged 4,836, up slightly even with a county known for fast new-home absorption. Homes are also sitting longer, with Days on Market rising to 73 days (up 9%). These 90-day trends point to a clear softening in buyer urgency and overall market movement compared with the same period last year.

What makes Pasco different from Hillsborough and Pinellas is the nature of its affordability. With a mortgage-to-income ratio of 37.5%, Pasco is still above the healthy 28–30% range, but remains the most affordable county in Tampa Bay. This helps explain why Pasco continued to attract buyers priced out of other counties during the pandemic boom. But today, rising interest rates, insurance premiums, and HOA/CDD fees have eroded that advantage. The monthly payment gap between Pasco and its neighboring counties remains favorable, but not nearly as dramatic as it was in 2021–2022. That shrinking affordability edge is one reason demand has moderated.

The locked-in effect exists here as well, though it plays out differently than in Hillsborough or Pinellas. Many Pasco homeowners refinanced into 2.5%–3.5% mortgage rates during the pandemic, and replacing those loans with today’s 6–7% rates is a clear financial downgrade. But because Pasco’s housing stock is comparatively newer, residents have not accumulated decades of capped property taxes the way long-time Pinellas owners have. This means fewer Pasco homeowners feel “trapped” by tax increases — yet the higher mortgage rate alone is enough to keep many from listing unless necessary. The result is a market where new construction provides a steady flow of inventory, while resale listings stay limited by owner hesitation.

Another major factor shaping Pasco’s slowdown is migration normalization. From 2021 through 2023, Pasco was one of Florida’s fastest-growing suburban corridors, driven by post-COVID relocation trends and remote workers seeking more space. Federal migration indicators show that this inflow has meaningfully slowed by 2024–2025. Pasco still grows, but the pace has returned to pre-pandemic norms. With fewer newcomers entering the county, demand automatically cools — especially for new construction communities that once relied heavily on out-of-state buyers.

Finally, economic uncertainty is influencing buyer and seller psychology. When people feel unsure about inflation, interest rates, or the stability of the broader economy, they delay major financial decisions. Pasco’s 90-day data shows this hesitation clearly: fewer contracts written, longer market times, and more cautious bidding behavior. Builders have adjusted by offering incentives, and existing-home sellers have become more flexible on price, reflected in the stable 94% Sale-to-List Ratio.

Taken together, these factors paint a picture of a market entering a period of normalization rather than distress. Pasco is transitioning from its pandemic-era growth surge into a steadier, more predictable pace. Affordability remains its strongest long-term advantage, but the path forward depends on improving monthly payment pressures, stabilizing rates, and restoring buyer confidence.

Affordability Strain — “When Payments Rise, Demand Slows”

• Mortgage-to-Income Ratio: 37.5%
  Families are spending much more than the recommended 28–30% of income on mortgage payments (Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies: https://www.jchs.harvard.edu).

• Value-to-Income Ratio: 4.4
       Homes cost over four times the average household income, making ownership harder.

• Buy vs Rent Differential: 15.3%
  A number like 15.3% doesn’t mean owning is 15 times higher — it       means owning costs about 15% more per month than renting a similar       home. In most healthy markets, this number usually sits around 5% to       10%, where owning and renting are much closer in cost. Pasco’s 15.3% is not as high as Hillsborough or Pinellas, but it still shows that renting is noticeably cheaper for many families. This helps explain why some buyers are waiting, even though Pasco is the most affordable county in the region.

• Monthly Payment Pressure Rising:
  Interest rates are having a major impact in Pasco too, and predictions for next year offer some hope. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects mortgage rates to move into the mid-6% range in 2026, and Fannie Mae forecasts something similar at 5.9%–6.1%. Since every 1% drop in mortgage rates boosts buying power by about 10%, a shift like this could bring millions of buyers back into the market nationwide.

Pasco’s mortgage-to-income ratio is 37.5%, higher than the healthy 28–30% range, which means many families struggle to qualify at today’s rates. A drop to the mid-6% range would lower that burden and help more buyers afford homes, especially since Pasco remains the most affordable county in Tampa Bay. While lower rates won’t fix everything, they could make a noticeable difference in monthly payments and bring more buyers back sooner than many expect.

County-to-County Comparison Closing

Compared with Hillsborough and Pinellas, Pasco remains the most affordable county — but affordability is still strained. Pasco’s 37.5% mortgage burden is lower than Pinellas (40%) but higher than Hillsborough (36.5%). Pasco also shows a softer Buy vs Rent gap (15.3%), meaning renting is cheaper, but not by as much as coastal Pinellas or urban Hillsborough. Pasco’s 4 months of inventory is similar to Hillsborough but lower than Pinellas’ 6 months, showing that buyer demand — while slower — is still supported by ongoing population growth and newer construction. In short:

• Hillsborough is slowing because of affordability pressure.

• Pinellas is slowing because of high prices and limited land.

• Pasco is slowing because buyers are cautious, but it remains the region’s   “value” market.

🔢 Key Market Metrics – as of December 2025

(Single-month snapshot of six core metrics; data sourced from Stellar MLS and Realist.)

Term Explainers:

• Median List Price: The typical asking price for homes on the market.

• Median Close Price: The typical final selling price buyers actually       pay.

• Days to Contract (DTC): Number of days it takes for a home to get an accepted offer.

• Days to Close: Time needed to finish paperwork once a home goes       under contract.

• Sales-to-List Ratio (SLR): Shows how much buyers negotiate compared to the asking price.

• Months of Inventory (MOI): How long it would take for all homes to       sell if no new homes were listed.

  • 4 months = more balanced market (buyers gaining power).

Some people may wonder how Pasco’s Months of Inventory (MOI) has increased when listings have only risen slightly and sales have not collapsed. The reason is that MOI measures the balance between the number of homes for sale and how quickly buyers are absorbing them. Even a modest rise in listings combined with slower sales — like Pasco’s 16% drop in closed sales and 10% drop in pending sales — causes inventory to last longer. When homes stay on the market for more days and fewer buyers are writing offers, MOI naturally climbs. In other words: Pasco’s housing ‘supply tank’ is draining more slowly because demand has cooled, so the available inventory stretches further even without a large increase in new listings.

Initial Findings

• List price barely changed, meaning sellers are still optimistic but       pricing is leveling off.

• Close price dipped, showing buyers are negotiating more.

• Days to Contract jumped 30%, proving buyers have more time and       choice.

• Days to Close rose, a sign of slower loan processing and buyer       caution.

• Sales-to-List Ratio staying flat means sellers are adjusting prices before buyers negotiate.

• 4 Months of Inventory shows Pasco is moving toward a balanced       market.

Craig’s Take

🌎 General Market Insights for All

Pasco County ends 2025 as a calmer, slower market with growing inventory and a more patient buyer pool. Homes sit longer — 73 days on average — and buyers are more careful because of higher monthly payments. The 37.5% mortgage-to-income ratio is pushing some families to continue renting instead of buying. Even so, Pasco remains one of the most affordable places in Tampa Bay, and this keeps the market stable despite the slowdown. Inventory rising to 4 months is a major sign of balance, not trouble. Overall, Pasco is not weakening; it is normalizing after years of extreme demand.

🛒 For Buyers — “More Homes, More Time, Better Deals”

Buyers now have more leverage than at any time since before the pandemic. With homes taking longer to sell and inventory rising, buyers can be patient and negotiate more. The buy-vs-rent gap (15.3%) shows buying is costly, but if ownership is your long-term goal, this market finally gives you room to move thoughtfully instead of racing against other buyers.

Action Steps:

• Ask sellers for closing cost help or a rate buydown.

• Target listings sitting 50+ days for better negotiation.

• Use full inspections — repairs are more negotiable now.

• Compare long-term ownership benefits vs short-term rent savings.

🏠 For Sellers — “Price Smart to Stay Competitive”

With 73 days on market and sales down, sellers must understand that buyers are being cautious. Pricing is the most important decision you can make. Homes that are clean, updated, and priced correctly still sell — they just take longer. The 94% Sale-to-List Ratio shows that sellers who overprice lose time, not money. Adjust early, not late.

Action Steps:

• Set a realistic price based on today’s slower demand.

• Improve photos and staging — buyers compare more homes now.

• Offer incentives to stand out, such as rate buydowns.

• Adjust pricing quickly if showings are weak.

💰 For Investors — “Look for Long-Term Value, Not Quick Flips”

Investors in Pasco are still active because the county remains affordable compared to Hillsborough and Pinellas. Rent demand remains strong, especially around job hubs and new construction areas. However, flipping is harder because profit margins are smaller. Long-term, cash-flow-focused investing works best here.

Action Steps:

• Look for homes with under-market rents to improve cash flow.

• Consider areas with strong growth (Wesley Chapel, Land O’ Lakes, Odessa).

• Negotiate repairs and price reductions — sellers are more flexible.

• Focus on rentals, not fast flips; the math favors long-term holds.

🧠 Final Thoughts

Pasco County is cooling, but not weakening. Buyers have more control, sellers must stay realistic, and investors must focus on long-term value. Affordability challenges are shaping demand, but steady population growth keeps the market stable. Pasco remains the “value” county of Tampa Bay — and in 2026, the people who understand this shift will make smarter decisions, whether buying, selling, or investing.