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To My Loyal (Or Soon to Be) Market Movers and Weekend Chasers:
If you’re here for the best local vibes and our curated list of must-attend weekend events, keep scrolling—we’ve got a packed lineup for you this week to be in the know of the latest hotspots in Tampa. But, if you’re looking to get ahead of the market, decode the latest billion-dollar headlines, and see why Tampa is officially shifting from a "growth market" to a national powerhouse, jump straight to the bottom for this week’s Real Estate Article!
Nevertheless, You are, and will always be welcome.
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Tampa Bay Events of the Week
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Vietnamese Lunar New Year Show at Seminole Hard Rock Tampa
📅 Monday | January 26, 2026 | 9:00 PM – 11:00 PM 📍Location: Seminole Hard Rock Tampa – Event Center
5223 Orient Rd, Tampa, FL 33610
🧧A New Year Celebration, Hard Rock Style
If you’re looking for an event that’s not the same recycled weekend plan, this is it. The Vietnamese Lunar New Year Show brings a whole different kind of energy to Tampa—one that’s vibrant, joyful, and deeply rooted in culture… but still feels like a full-scale, go-out-and-make-a-night-of-it experience.
This isn’t just a performance. It’s the kind of evening that feels like stepping into something festive, meaningful, and elevated all at once—where the crowd is dressed up, the mood is celebratory, and the entire night carries that fresh-start momentum Lunar New Year is known for.
Let’s be honest—hosting this at the Seminole Hard Rock Tampa Event Center instantly levels it up. The venue brings that state-of-the-art production feel, and it also turns the whole night into a choose-your-own-adventure kind of plan.
You’re not just showing up for a show… you’re stepping into a full atmosphere where you can make it a complete evening—grab drinks, enjoy the property, and let the night run longer than you planned (because it always does at Hard Rock).
It’s perfect if you want something that feels glamorous, high-energy, and a little bit “Tampa nightlife meets cultural spotlight.”
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Ben Rosenblum Jazz Quartet — Live
📅 Thursday | January 22, 2026 | 7:30 PM – 9:00 PM 📍Location: Ferman Center for the Arts – Charlene A. Gordon Theater University of Tampa, Tampa, FL 33606
🌙 A “Real Jazz Club” Night… Hidden in Plain Sight
You know those nights where you want to go out, do something elevated, and actually feel like you experienced Tampa—not just “went somewhere”? This is exactly that kind of evening.
The University of Tampa is hosting the Ben Rosenblum Jazz Quartet, and it’s the type of performance that feels like a New York City jazz lounge dropped right into downtown Tampa for one night only. It’s refined, intimate, and high-level—without the pressure of a big crowd or a pricey ticket.
And the best part? It’s completely free.
Ben Rosenblum isn’t just “a guy who plays piano.” He’s an internationally recognized jazz pianist, accordionist, and composer, meaning this show has the kind of range that keeps the whole room locked in—whether you’re a true jazz lover or you just want something classy to do on a Thursday night.
Expect the vibe to feel rich and textured—piano-led melodies, modern jazz energy, and those moments where the music gets quiet enough that you can literally feel the room listening.
This is the kind of performance that makes you realize: Tampa has culture… you just have to know where to look.
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Monte Pizza (St. Pete) — Brand-New
Wood-Fired Comfort Across the Bridge
📍 Location: 5859 54th Ave N St. Petersburg FL 33710
🌆 A “Let’s Get Out of Tampa” Bite That’s Actually
Worth the Drive
Every now and then, something opens that instantly feels like the kind of place people start casually dropping into conversation like: “Have you been yet?”
Monte Pizza is one of those brand-new St. Pete openings that makes you want to cross the bridge on purpose—not because you have to, but because you’re craving a change of scenery and something that feels newly discovered.
It’s the perfect plan when you want a night that feels a little more spontaneous… but still hits that sweet spot of simple + satisfying + fun.
There’s just something about wood-fired pizza that makes it feel different. It’s not fast-food pizza energy. It’s not “we grabbed a slice” energy.
It’s the kind of meal that feels like: good company, a real dinner, and a reason to stay a little longer than you planned.
Expect that classic wood-fired appeal—crispy edges, melty goodness, and that smoky, warm comfort that makes pizza feel like the most elite form of casual food.
This is the kind of place you go when you want something cozy, craveable, and zero-stress… but still new and exciting.
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. San Jose Sharks
📅 Tuesday | January 20, 2026 | 7:00 PM
📍 Location: Benchmark International Arena
Address: 401 Channelside Dr, Tampa, FL 33602
⚡ “Let’s Go Bolts” Energy Hits Different in January
January in Tampa can feel like a quiet stretch after the holidays… and that’s exactly why this game is such a power move. Lightning hockey is the perfect excuse to get out, feel the city buzzing again, and turn a regular Tuesday into something that actually feels like an event.
And if you’ve ever been downtown on a game night, you already know the vibe: the jerseys come out, Channelside comes alive, and suddenly Tampa feels loud in the best way.
This matchup against the San Jose Sharks is one of those nights where you’ll want to show up early, soak it in, and let the energy do what it always does—pull you into the moment.
The Sharks aren’t coming to Tampa for a laid-back skate-around kind of night. This is the kind of matchup that tends to keep the pace moving—fast transitions, quick shots, and those blink-and-it’s-a-breakaway moments that make hockey so addictive.
If you’re bringing someone who “doesn’t really watch hockey,” this is exactly the kind of game that converts them—because once the speed clicks, it’s over. They’re in.
And for the real fans? You already know… it’s about watching Tampa control the tempo and make the building erupt.
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Ashley Children’s Gasparilla — Tampa’s Cutest Pirate Party on Bayshore
📅 Saturday | January 24, 2026 | 11:00 AM – 7:30 PM 📍 Location: Bayshore Blvd, Tampa, Florida 33629
⚓ Tampa’s Most Wholesome Gasparilla Day Is About to Take Over Bayshore
If regular Gasparilla is the city’s loudest party… Ashley Children’s Gasparilla is the version that’s all heart. It’s where Tampa’s smallest pirates show up in full costume confidence, parents turn into parade strategists, and Bayshore becomes one long stretch of pirate-themed joy.
This is the day you’ll want your camera charged for—because the vibes are pure Tampa: sunshine, strollers, marching bands, and kids living their absolute best pirate life.
One of the most underrated moments of the entire day is the Preschooler’s Stroll—because it’s equal parts adorable and hilarious.
You’ll see tiny pirates with oversized hats, mini mermaids living in full character, and proud parents hyping up their kids like they’re leading the whole parade (because honestly… they are).
It’s the kind of moment where you realize: This isn’t just an event. It’s a core Tampa memory being made.
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Hadestown: Teen Edition — Myth, Music, and a Steampunk Underworld
📅 Saturday | January 24, 2026 | 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM 📍 Location: Ovations Repertory Company
13976 West Hillsborough Ave, Tampa, FL 33635
⚡ A Classic Myth… Reimagined Like You’ve Never Seen It
This isn’t your typical “sit politely and clap” kind of musical. Hadestown: Teen Edition takes two legendary Greek myths — Orpheus & Eurydice and Hades & Persephone — and drops them straight into a steampunk-inspired underworld where everything feels gritty, cinematic, and emotionally charged.
It’s the kind of story that pulls you in fast, then keeps raising the stakes until you’re fully invested in the outcome — even if you’ve heard these myths before.
Because this version doesn’t just tell the story… it makes you feel it.
The steampunk underworld setting gives this production that moody, immersive energy where every scene feels like it’s happening inside a different world.
It’s the kind of show where the atmosphere becomes part of the story — the tension, the mystery, the beauty, the danger — all of it working together to make you forget you’re watching local theater and feel like you’ve stepped into something much bigger.
And that’s what makes it such a cool outing: it’s not just entertainment… it’s an experience.
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Dunedin Saturday Market — Your “Slow Morning, Good Finds” Kind of Day
📅 Saturday | January 24, 2026 | 9:00 AM – 2:00 PM 📍 Location: John R. Lawrence Pioneer Park
Address: 420 Main St, Dunedin, FL 34698
🍓 A Market That Feels Like a Mini Vacation
Across the Bridge
If your ideal weekend plan includes good weather, a walkable downtown, and leaving with a bag full of things you didn’t know you needed, this is your kind of morning. The Dunedin Saturday Market is the perfect excuse to slow down and enjoy a coastal-town rhythm—where browsing turns into exploring, and “just stopping by” turns into staying awhile.
This market has that rare combination of being relaxed and lively at the same time—easy to wander, easy to shop, easy to enjoy.
One of the best parts of this market is the atmosphere. With live music playing while you walk, it doesn’t feel like “errands”… it feels like a Saturday ritual.
Even if you’re not on a mission to shop, it’s still worth going just for the energy—music, sunshine, the smell of fresh food in the air, and that classic Dunedin charm where everything feels a little more relaxed than the rest of the week.
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Kenwood Sunday Market (St. Pete) — The “Sunday Reset” You’ll Actually Look Forward To
📅 Sunday | January 25, 2026 | 9:00 AM – 2:00 PM 📍 Location: Location: St Petersburg High School
Address: 2501 5th Ave N, St. Petersburg, FL 33713
🌿 The Kind of Sunday Plan That Feels Like a Win
Some Sundays are for doing nothing… and some Sundays are for doing something that makes you feel like you’ve got your life together without trying too hard. That’s exactly what the Kenwood Sunday Market delivers.
It’s not rushed, it’s not chaotic — it’s that perfect in-between where you can wander, snack, shop, listen to music, and still feel like you’ve got plenty of day left when you leave.
The live music is what makes this market feel less like shopping and more like an experience. It turns the whole space into a low-key Sunday hangout, where even if you’re just there to browse, you’ll end up staying longer than expected.
It’s easygoing, upbeat, and the kind of atmosphere that makes the whole morning feel like a mini event — without needing to be “a whole thing.”
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Craig’s Weekly Real Estate Digest
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Tampa Closed 2025 on Fire — Is This the New Normal for Real Estate?
Tampa ended 2025 with the kind of momentum most cities would love to claim. The headlines say the region stayed strong, kept growing, and brought in investment even while the rest of the country dealt with high interest rates and rising costs. But the smartest real estate decisions don’t come from headlines. They come from understanding what those numbers really mean for everyday people—buyers trying to get a home, sellers trying to time the market, and investors trying to avoid risk.
Here’s the honest truth: Tampa can be strong and strained at the same time. The city can be adding jobs while housing still feels expensive. Tourism can be booming while locals feel squeezed. Apartments can look “full” while affordability becomes the biggest threat underneath the surface. That’s why the question going into 2026 isn’t “Is Tampa winning?” The real question is whether Tampa’s growth is creating stability—or creating pressure that could show up later in the real estate market.
What’s Happening
(The Real Story Behind Tampa’s 2025 Momentum)
Tampa closed 2025 with economic signals that directly impact housing demand and property values. The key isn’t just that the numbers are “up” — it’s whether they’re strong relative to what’s normal.
Here’s what the data is really saying:
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Job growth stayed strong and outpaced the national average What this means: More people earning paychecks usually means more people can rent or buy homes. Baseline context: Job growth is a “green flag,” but it only helps real estate when those jobs are stable and pay enough to keep up with Tampa’s rising housing costs.
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The region added 15,500 private sector jobs in May 2025 What this means: Private sector jobs are jobs created by businesses (not government). This matters because business growth supports long-term housing demand. Baseline context: A strong month like this is meaningful, but one month alone doesn’t guarantee the full year stays strong—so it’s a momentum indicator, not a guarantee.
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Education and Health Services led growth with 5,000+ new positions What this means: This includes hospitals, medical offices, schools, and related jobs. These tend to be more stable even when the economy slows down. Baseline context: This is stronger than job growth led by industries that tend to swing hard up and down (like certain tech or speculative sectors).
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Tourism hit record highs with $1.2B in taxable hotel revenue What this means: Taxable hotel revenue is a simple way to measure how much money visitors actually spent on hotels (not just how many tourists came). Baseline context: This supports restaurants, retail, and downtown activity—but tourism can cool fast if the economy tightens nationally.
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540+ conventions brought an estimated $366M in economic impact What this means: Conventions bring large groups into Tampa all at once, filling hotels and driving spending in the city. Baseline context: This is a real boost for downtown businesses, but it’s also concentrated in specific areas—so not every neighborhood benefits equally.
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Retail vacancy stayed extremely tight (~3.5%) What this means: Retail vacancy is the percent of empty storefronts. Low vacancy means most spaces are leased and operating. Baseline context: In most markets, anything under ~5% is considered very tight. This is a strong sign for consumer activity, but it can soften quickly if spending slows.
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Multifamily occupancy held at ~92.7% What this means: Multifamily is apartment buildings with 5+ units. Occupancy shows what percent of units are filled. Baseline context: Above ~90% is generally considered healthy. This suggests real rental demand is still there—but it does not automatically mean renters can handle big rent increases.
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Office fundamentals improved as vacancy dropped to its lowest level since 2022 What this means: Office vacancy is the percent of office space sitting empty. Lower vacancy means more leased space and more companies using offices.
Baseline context: This is notable because many U.S. cities have struggled with high office vacancy since 2020. Tampa improving here is a positive sign—but office markets can change fast if hiring slows or remote work expands again.
Market Implications
This is where things get interesting — because Tampa’s 2025 economy wasn’t powered by one trend.
It was powered by four overlapping “real estate multipliers” that change what buyers, sellers, and investors should pay attention to next:
1) The “Migration-to-Job” Multiplier
Tampa isn’t just gaining people.
It’s gaining people + payroll at the same time, which is the fuel behind sustained housing demand.
One of the most important indicators you shared: May 2025 saw 15,500 private-sector jobs added, led by Education and Health Services (over 5,000 new positions). That matters because it’s the kind of work that tends to hold up better during downturns.
What this does to real estate:
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Stronger tenant demand (especially around hospitals, universities, and employment hubs)
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More stable rental absorption
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A buyer pool with more predictable income than “speculative boom” markets
But here’s the risk: If housing costs rise faster than wages—even good job growth turns into churn: people move in, then can’t stay.
2) Defying the National “Office Death Spiral”
National headlines love to say office is dead.
But Tampa is one of the places where the narrative is more complicated.
Reports indicate office vacancy dropped to its lowest level since 2022, suggesting the “flight to quality” is working here—meaning companies are choosing fewer, better buildings instead of abandoning the market entirely.
What this does to real estate:
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Office stability supports weekday foot traffic
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Foot traffic supports retail and restaurants
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That creates demand for nearby apartments and condos (because “close to work” matters again)
But here’s the risk: This is not guaranteed to hold. Office markets can shift fast if layoffs hit or if companies re-expand remote work again.
3) The Hospitality “Halo Effect”
Tourism isn’t just “nice for the city.”
It changes the economics of entire neighborhoods.
Tampa cleared $1.2B+ in taxable hotel revenue in 2025 and is showing signs of long-range convention demand.
What this does to real estate:
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Supports retail and “experience” businesses (restaurants, entertainment, events)
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Raises demand for walkable neighborhoods
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Increases investor interest in short/mid-term rental zones (where allowed)
But here’s the risk: Tourism-driven economies get exposed quickly when costs rise or if travel demand dips. And there’s also political risk—tourism tax policy changes could alter funding dynamics over time.
4) The ALICE Threshold: Tampa’s Most Underrated Real Estate Signal
This is the “truth metric.”
Because it’s not about buildings—it’s about whether people can stay.
ALICE means Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed: households that are working, but still living on the edge.
The fact that 46% of households fall under ALICE changes the entire real estate conversation—not emotionally, financially.
What this does to real estate:
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It explains why occupancy can stay high even if affordability is breaking
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It creates a massive market for attainable housing, not just luxury
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It shifts 2026’s best opportunity toward “attainable luxury” (nice, but not unreachable)
But here’s the risk: If rent grows too fast, this becomes instability—late payments, higher turnover, more distress sales. The market doesn’t crash overnight—it softens through stress first.
Market Metrics
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Sources: Cushman & Wakefield, Visit Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay EDC, FloridaCommerce, Tampa Bay Partnership.
Key Takeaways
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Tampa’s growth is real — and it’s being supported by paychecks, not just headlines. With +15,500 private-sector jobs added (May 2025), demand for both rentals and homeownership stays supported because more households can afford housing.
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The “quality” of job growth matters, and Tampa’s mix is a stabilizer. Growth led by Education & Health Services is a strong sign because these jobs tend to hold up better in slower economies, supporting steady demand near hospitals, clinics, and universities.
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Tourism and conventions are acting like an economic shock absorber for the urban core. With $1.2B+ in taxable hotel revenue and 540+ conventions generating $366M, Tampa is pulling year-round spending that supports restaurants, retail corridors, and walkable districts.
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Retail demand is still tight — which supports neighborhood energy and pricing power. Retail vacancy around ~3.5% signals storefronts are staying occupied, which usually means strong foot traffic and consumer spending in key nodes.
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Office isn’t collapsing here — but it’s not a blanket win across all buildings. Office vacancy hitting its lowest point since 2022 shows demand is concentrating into better spaces and better locations, which supports the urban core and nearby housing demand.
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Multifamily is still “full,” but it’s weakening compared to recent years. 92.7% multifamily occupancy is still healthy, but being one of the lowest levels in the past decade suggests renters have more options and rent growth may stay muted.
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Affordability is the biggest limit on how far prices and rents can run next. When 46% of households are ALICE (working but financially strained), the market can stay active while still hitting resistance on rent increases and buyer budgets.
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Industrial softening confirms Tampa is normalizing, not “straight up” anymore. 6.9% industrial vacancy (highest in six years) is a sign some sectors are cooling after years of strength — a normal pattern when growth slows into a more balanced cycle.
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Bottom line: Tampa finished 2025 strong — but 2026 will reward strategy over hype. The economy supports demand, but affordability pressure means real estate outcomes will be neighborhood-specific and price-sensitive.
💡 My Take: Where the Smart Money Moves
For Buyers: “Buy the Demand… Not the Hype”
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Focus on areas with job gravity (Downtown, Midtown, Westshore, USF/Uptown corridors)
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Look for property types that fit the new Tampa buyer pool: townhomes, move-in ready homes, and well-run condos
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Be cautious of “cool neighborhoods” with weak fundamentals — the market is rewarding income-driven demand, not vibes
Kincheloe Group Advantage: We can build a micro-market pricing strategy for the exact neighborhood you’re targeting (so you don’t overpay just because the listing is shiny).
For Sellers: “Sell the Life — But Prove the Numbers”
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The best sellers in 2026 will “package” their home around:
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Buyers are nervous right now — they want confidence, not sales talk
Kincheloe Group Advantage: We position listings around economic anchors (jobs, districts, tourism, infrastructure) so your home doesn’t compete on price alone.
For Investors: “Attainable Luxury Is the Real Alpha”
Smart targets:
Kincheloe Group Advantage: We help you avoid “headline investing” and focus on cash-flow durability + resale liquidity, not just appreciation stories.
🔑 Final Thoughts (Big Picture, No Fluff)
Tampa ended 2025 strong — not because of one lucky trend, but because multiple engines hit at once:
migration + jobs + tourism + commercial stability.
But the city’s next phase is about balance.
The winners won’t be the people who ask, “Is Tampa growing?”
They’ll be the people who ask:
Where is Tampa growing in a way that real estate can actually sustain?
Because Tampa isn’t just becoming bigger.
It’s becoming harder to buy into — and easier to regret if you choose the wrong pocket.
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A Message From Craig
Let’s make this week count —
We put a lot of pride and care into curating these updates each week — making sure they feel useful, inspiring, and genuinely connected to the places we love. If there’s ever a topic or neighborhood you want to see more of, just hit reply and tell me. This newsletter is built with you in mind, and I’m grateful you’re here.
— Craig
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