Bryan Adams: Roll with the Punches 2025 Tour

📅 Monday | November 10, 2025 | 7:30 PM
📍Location: Benchmark International Arena, 401 Channelside Dr, Tampa, FL 33602

⚡ A Rock Legend Returns to Tampa

Get ready, Tampa — one of rock’s most iconic voices is taking over the Benchmark International Arena as Bryan Adams brings his Roll with the Punches 2025 Tour to town on November 10. Known for his unmistakable rasp, electrifying stage presence, and a catalog packed with timeless hits, Adams promises a night that blends nostalgia with raw, live-wire energy. It’s the kind of concert that reminds you why arena rock became legendary in the first place.

Bryan Adams brings a setlist stacked with decades of favorites — the stadium-shaking anthems, the emotional ballads, and everything in between. With his trademark live intensity and the arena’s electric atmosphere, every moment feels bigger, louder, and more personal than the last. Whether you grew up on his classics or discovered him through film soundtracks and modern collaborations, this show hits every era with precision and passion.

Kaytranada & Justice: North American 2025 Tour

📅 Saturday | November 15, 2025 | 8:00 PM
📍Location: Benchmark International Arena, 401 Channelside Dr, Tampa, FL 33602

🔥 Two Powerhouses. One Electrifying Night.

Get ready, Tampa — the dance-music gods are descending on Benchmark International Arena as Kaytranada and Justice bring their monumental North American 2025 Tour to town on November 15. This is one of the most anticipated electronic music events of the year, pairing two globally acclaimed acts whose influence spans electro, funk, house, and futuristic disco.

The fusion of Kaytranada’s hypnotic rhythm signatures and Justice’s cinematic, arena-shaking energy promises a sensory experience that feels equal parts dance floor bliss and full-blown audiovisual spectacle.

While both artists could easily headline arenas on their own, seeing them together is the kind of crossover moment that defines a tour season. Justice brings their French electro-rock thunder. Kaytranada answers with smooth, head-nodding beats that feel effortless yet iconic.

The energy is explosive, the artistry is unmatched, and the vibe? Pure electricity from opening track to final fade-out.

1983 — Elevated Comfort in South Tampa

📍 Location: 2616 South MacDill Ave, Tampa, FL 33629

🎉 Where Neighborhood Vibes Meet Elevated Dining

Welcome to 1983, a restaurant that celebrates connection, community, and the joy of gathering. Located in South Tampa, this neighborhood dining destination blends timeless design with relaxed energy, inviting guests to join for brunch, dinner, or spontaneous patio drinks.

1983 serves elevated versions of familiar favorites, combining seasonally driven snacks, shareable plates, and refreshing beverages that elevate rather than complicate. Whether you're stopping by for a midday bite or lingering over cocktails at night, the menu is built to delight a wide range of tastes and occasions.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Rangers

📅 Wednesday | November 12, 2025 | 7:00 PM

📍 Location: Benchmark International Arena, 401 Channelside Dr, Tampa, FL 33602

🏒 A High-Stakes Rivalry Comes to Channelside

Hockey energy is about to take over downtown as the Tampa Bay Lightning host the New York Rangers on November 12 in what promises to be one of the most electric matchups of the fall. Two powerhouse franchises. Two passionate fanbases. One night under the bright lights at the Benchmark International Arena.

Whether you’re a die-hard Bolts fan or simply love a night packed with intensity, speed, and hard-hitting play, this game brings all the ingredients of a classic Eastern Conference showdown.

This matchup always delivers, and this year is no exception. The Lightning bring their trademark fast-paced offense and disciplined defensive core, while the Rangers arrive with a deep roster, stellar goaltending, and one of the most loyal followings in the league.

From breakaway rushes to power-play battles, every shift counts. Expect a game filled with momentum swings, highlight-reel plays, and the kind of edge-of-your-seat energy that makes hockey in Tampa unforgettable.

Cinderella — A Fresh, Whimsical Take on a Timeless Tale

📅 Saturday | November 15, 2025 | 7:00 PM – 8:30 PM
📍 Location: New Tampa Performing Arts Center, 8550 Hunters Village Rd., Tampa, FL 33647

✨ A Fairytale Reimagined for Today’s Audience

Step into an evening of magic as Tampa City Ballet reinterprets Cinderella with a modern, humorous twist that breathes new life into the beloved classic. Presented as part of their Family Series, this production blends the elegance of ballet with expressive contemporary movement, delivering a version of the story that feels vibrant, funny, and deeply enchanting. From the first notes of music to the final sweeping dance, audiences are invited into a fairytale world where personality and playfulness shine as brightly as the choreography.

Created specifically with families in mind, this performance is an accessible, joyful way to introduce younger audiences to the world of dance. The pacing is lively, the characters are expressive, and the story is told visually in a way that keeps kids engaged from beginning to end. For adults, it delivers a warm, nostalgic experience that honors the original fairytale while giving it a contemporary heartbeat.

Sew Chill: Stitch, Relax & Create

📅 Thursday | November 13, 2025 | 5:30 PM – 7:30 AM
📍 Location: AMRoC Fab Lab, 2154 University Square Mall, Tampa, FL 33612

✂️ Where Creativity Meets Calm

Every week at AMRoC Fab Lab, the hum of sewing machines blends with laughter and conversation during Sew Chill, a recurring workshop designed to help makers unwind while learning or perfecting their craft. Whether you’re new to sewing or already working on your own projects, this cozy meetup invites you to escape the hustle and find peace in the rhythm of the stitch.

Led by Sewing Specialist Liz Kirby, participants are welcomed into a colorful space filled with fabrics, threads, and friendly faces. Beginners can join the Tuesday sessions to learn foundational skills like threading, hemming, and machine basics, while those ready for more advanced projects meet on Wednesdays to tackle collaborative creations or bring their own ideas to life.

Each Sew Chill night is designed to nurture both creativity and community. You’ll find tables filled with bright textiles, patterns, and materials for all kinds of projects—from tote bags and quilts to clothing alterations and upcycled designs. Liz’s approachable teaching style and the welcoming atmosphere make it easy to dive in, no matter your experience level.

The sessions emphasize mindful making—allowing guests to decompress, express themselves through craft, and connect with others who share a love for handmade artistry. It’s part social club, part creative therapy, and entirely Tampa.

Dunedin Saturday Market

📅 Saturday | November 15, 2025 | 9:00 AM – 2:00 PM
📍 Location: Dunedin History Museum, 349 Main St, Dunedin, FL 34698

🛍️ Local Treasures in the Heart of Dunedin

Every Saturday morning, Downtown Dunedin comes alive as the Saturday Market transforms Main Street into a bustling hub of local farmers, artisans, and food vendors. Against the backdrop of the historic Dunedin History Museum, this market is the perfect way to start your weekend with community, culture, and fresh finds.

With more than 40 vendors, visitors can browse everything from seasonal produce, baked goods, and artisan foods to plants, bath & body products, and handcrafted items. Hungry? Grab a bite from one of the ready-to-eat lunch vendors and enjoy a relaxed meal while exploring.

Adding to the charm, the market features live local music to set the vibe and is proudly dog-friendly, making it the perfect outing for both families and pet owners. Convenient free parking nearby ensures your visit is as easy as it is enjoyable.

Water Street Sunday Market — Tampa’s Freshest Waterfront Marketplace

📅 Sunday | November 16 | 10:00 AM – 3:00 PM
📍 Location: Water Street, Tampa, FL 33602

🛍️ A Community Market With a Waterfront Soul

Water Street transforms into a vibrant, open-air marketplace on the third Sunday of each month, bringing together more than 70 local producers, makers, and artisans. As November rolls in, the district’s waterfront energy and cool fall breeze create the perfect backdrop for a leisurely Sunday stroll packed with good food, unique finds, and relaxed city-by-the-bay vibes. Whether you're browsing handmade goods or grabbing something delicious from a food truck, the market’s atmosphere feels both modern and warm, exactly what makes Water Street one of Tampa’s most dynamic neighborhoods.

From the moment you step onto Water Street, you’ll feel the buzz: music drifting through the air, food trucks serving up crowd favorites, and rows of tents showcasing everything from fresh produce to specialty crafts. The vendors bring a curated mix of seasonal foods, artisanal products, baked goods, plants, and locally made essentials. Each month brings something new, making it a recurring favorite for residents, visitors, and anyone who loves supporting Tampa’s creative community.

The Tampa Bay History Center Annual Gala

📅 Friday | November 14, 2025 | 7:00 PM - 11:00 PM
📍Location: Tampa Bay History Center, 801 Water St, Tampa, FL 33602

🌙 An Elegant Evening of History, Aviation & Tampa Bay Pride

The Tampa Bay History Center’s most glamorous night of the year returns on Friday, November 14, bringing together civic leaders, philanthropists, and community supporters for an unforgettable black-tie celebration. Under the returning leadership of gala chairs Duncan and Jessica Belser, this year’s theme — “Something in the Air: Celebrating Our Civilian and Military Aviation History” — lifts the evening into a world of heritage, nostalgia, and soaring inspiration.

Set inside one of Tampa’s most treasured cultural institutions, the gala transforms the museum into a refined, atmospheric experience where guests mingle, explore, and celebrate the region’s storied past.

Even if you cannot attend, you can still participate in the spirit of the night. The gala welcomes fully tax-deductible donations, with proceeds benefiting the History Center’s student and community education programs, many of which are offered free thanks to donor support.

For sponsors, opportunities range from Silver to Platinum, each providing special recognition and exclusive benefits throughout the gala.

Source: Trend calculations derived from a 90-day rolling average of StellarMLS activity compared to same period in 2024. Inventory and DOM estimates are corroborated with active listing volumes and price reductions tracked weekly.

📊 Market Movement at a Glance

(90-day rolling average as of November 2025)

Hillsborough County’s November numbers reveal a market caught between softening buyer demand and an affordability ceiling that’s becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. With closed sales down, pendings dipping, and active inventory slightly lower, the market is shifting—but not collapsing. Instead, it’s settling into a slower, more economically constrained rhythm as monthly budgets bear the brunt of higher payments and price resistance.

This month’s signals point clearly toward a market behaving very differently from both the 2019 pre-pandemic baseline—when mortgage payments consumed a materially smaller share of income—and from the 2021–2022 overheated cycle, when Hillsborough saw aggressive bidding, rapid absorption, and double-digit price acceleration supported by low-interest-rate demand. According to Redfin and Freddie Mac, national demand softening aligns with local results: closed sales are down 10%, pendings down 5%, and active listings down 5%. Even as days on market drift up to 65 (a 7% climb), the sales-to-list ratio holding at 94% shows sellers remain somewhat anchored to earlier expectations.

But the tension isn’t purely supply-driven—it's affordability. Hillsborough’s mortgage-to-income ratio sits at 32.7%, well above sustainable norms, and echoes the stress highlighted by Reventure Consulting data. The value-to-income ratio of 4.3 and 12.8% buy-vs-rent differential form a clear behavioral boundary: buyers are hesitating because owning simply costs too much relative to incomes. Meanwhile, national reporting from Moody’s Analytics continues to flag income-adjusted home values in Florida as an outlier—still elevated compared to long-term norms.

Affordability Strain – “The Checkbook Decides Before the Heart Does”

Affordability remains the defining force shaping Hillsborough’s housing behavior.

Internal affordability indicators show:

• Mortgage-to-income ratio (32.7%) — staying above the traditional 28–30% sustainability band per Freddie Mac.

• Value-to-income ratio (4.3) — exceeding historical affordability norms tracked by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.

• Buy-vs-rent differential (12.8%) — renting remains more favorable.

• Payment pressure — higher monthly obligations continue to reduce buyer pool depth.

Here’s a simple, non-technical explanation of each item, written for people who aren’t familiar with real estate terms:

Mortgage-to-Income Ratio

This shows how much of your monthly income goes toward a mortgage payment.

Value-to-Income Ratio

This compares home prices to local household incomes.

Buy-vs-Rent Differential

This measures the difference between the monthly cost of owning (mortgage, insurance, taxes) versus the monthly cost of renting.

Payment Burden

This refers to the amount of income needed to cover homeownership costs, including mortgage, taxes, insurance, and upkeep.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows wages rising slowly, while housing costs rise much faster—
which means the payment burden is increasing and homeownership is becoming harder to afford.

Hillsborough sits squarely between the extremes of Pinellas and Pasco this month. It’s less inventory-heavy than Pinellas, which faces deeper DOM inflation and sharper price compression, but less affordable than Pasco, which maintains the region’s lowest buy-vs-rent gap and most stable ratio. Hillsborough’s demand softening mirrors Pinellas, though not as severely, and unlike Pasco, which is attracting budget-conscious buyers, Hillsborough is seeing more rate-driven hesitation. This positions it as the region’s “middle-market barometer” heading into Q1.

🔢 Key Market Metrics – as of November 2025

(Single-month snapshot of six core metrics; data sourced from Stellar MLS and Realist.)

💡 Quick Explainer: How We Interpret These Numbers

Each metric tells part of the market’s story:

• Median List Price — shows seller expectations; a slight YoY decline suggests softening confidence.

• Median Close Price — reflects what buyers are actually paying; flat YoY indicates resistance at current price levels.

• Days to Contract — rising timelines signal reduced urgency among buyers.

• Days to Close — minor improvement likely tied to underwriting efficiency rather than demand dynamics.

• Sales-to-List Ratio — slipping from .98 to .97 confirms buyers pushing back on pricing.

• Months of Inventory — holding steady at 4 months keeps the market balanced but leans toward caution.

Craig’s Take

🌐 General Market Insights for All

Hillsborough is past the post-pandemic fever and shifting into rational pricing territory. This month’s flat close price and consistent 4 MOI show a market that isn't collapsing—it's resetting.
Rising DOM (Days on Market) and slightly softer SLR (Sale-to-List Ratio) point to buyers taking their time, not panicking.
Affordability metrics from Reventure reinforce the biggest pressure point: monthly payments are swallowing nearly one-third of income, a level widely considered above the safe threshold in lending models.

Cross-county context preview:
Pinellas shows even higher DOM and weaker close prices, while Pasco maintains stronger pending activity relative to its size. Hillsborough sits squarely in the middle.

🏡 For Buyers — “Leverage Is Quietly Yours”

Demand softness + stable inventory = your most flexible negotiation window since 2019.
With SLR falling to 0.97, sellers are more open to repairs, concessions, and closing credits.
Even though renting looks cheaper short-term, long-term equity growth remains a powerful advantage.

Smart Buyer Moves:

• Seek seller-paid rate buydowns to soften affordability pressure.

• Use rising DOM to negotiate inspection credit stacking.

• Target listings 30+ days old—historically the highest concession probability.

🏠 For Sellers — “Realism Wins, Ego Sits”

DOM rose from 36 to 42, and buyers are filtering aggressively by price.
Because MOI isn't climbing, your home can still sell quickly—but only when priced in today’s market, not last spring’s.
Listings that launch correctly are still moving; mispriced ones sit and require painful reductions.

Seller Action Plan:

• Price within 1–2% of the most recent comp, not the highest comp.

• Strengthen marketing narratives to highlight value drivers (schools, upgrades, walkability).

• Offer closing credits or 2-1 buydowns to widen your buyer pool.

💰 For Investors — “Pick Your Spots, Not Just Properties”

Returns are being squeezed: rising holding costs + slow rent growth = thinner spreads.
But Hillsborough continues to outperform on duplexes and condos where PPSF (Price per Sq. Ft.) remains favorable.
With DOM rising and competition easing, this is a strong off-market acquisition window.

Investor Moves:

• Hunt for stale listings with structural or cosmetic upside.

• Evaluate MOI by submarket; pockets near planned transit improvements (per Tampa MPO) offer long-term upside.

• Favor value-add rehabs; cap-rate compression is real, but forced appreciation still pencils.

🧩 Final Thoughts — Cross-County Pattern Recognition Begins Here

Hillsborough is the middle path of Tampa Bay right now: not as softened as Pinellas, not as resilient as Pasco.
Its affordability strain mirrors all three counties, but its inventory stability keeps prices from sliding meaningfully.
As we move into the remaining county reports, a clearer regional theme is emerging:
Affordability—not inventory—is driving the market narrative.

Source: Trend calculations derived from a 90-day rolling average of StellarMLS activity compared to same period in 2024. Inventory and DOM estimates are corroborated with active listing volumes and price reductions tracked weekly.

📊 Market Movement at a Glance

(90-day rolling average as of November 2025)

Pinellas County enters November with clear evidence of cooling buyer energy and rising time-on-market pressures. Closed sales and pendings are slipping, inventory is expanding relative to demand, and sellers are adjusting expectations as affordability ceilings tighten. The market isn’t weakening due to oversupply—it’s slowing because household budgets can’t stretch much further.

This month’s numbers tell a story consistent with national patterns: compared with 2019’s pre-pandemic stability—when payment burdens were lower and market velocity was more predictable—and the 2021–2022 frenzy—when cheap mortgage rates helped buyers absorb price spikes—today’s Pinellas buyer is much more constrained. According to national trackers from Redfin and the rate environment monitored by Freddie Mac, demand softening is widespread, and Pinellas is no exception. With closed sales down 12% and pendings down 5%, even a meaningful listing pool (8,209 homes, down 10%) isn’t enough to reignite urgency.

The more telling signal is the climb in days on market—now averaging 77 days (+13%). That rise aligns closely with the county’s affordability ceiling: mortgage-to-income at 32.7%, value-to-income at 4.3, and a 12.8% buy-vs-rent advantage for renting, per Reventure Consulting. Meanwhile, broader economic data from Moody’s Analytics continues to flag Florida metros as affordability-stretched relative to income growth.

Sellers may point to the slight uptick in the sales-price-to-list-price ratio (+2%), but that’s less a sign of strengthening demand and more an indicator that aggressive overpricing has softened, allowing buyers and sellers to agree more efficiently.

💥 Affordability Strain

• Mortgage-to-income ratio (32.7%) — above the 28–30% guideline recommended by Freddie Mac.

• Value-to-income ratio (4.3) — elevated relative to long-term norms per Harvard JCHS.

• Buy-vs-rent differential (12.8%) — renting remains financially more viable per Reventure.

• Payment pressure — income growth trails cost-of-ownership benchmarks tracked by BLS.

Pinellas shows more pronounced price softening than Hillsborough, and notably slower buyer velocity (77 DOM vs. 65 DOM).
Where Hillsborough held the line on close prices, Pinellas registered a $20,000 drop.
Both counties share similar affordability strain, but Pinellas faces additional friction from higher insurance premiums and coastal risk, widening the gap.
Pasco’s numbers, coming next, will show a different profile—stronger relative demand but equally constrained affordability.

🔢 Key Market Metrics – as of November 2025

(Single-month snapshot of six core metrics; data sourced from Stellar MLS and Realist.)

💡 Quick Explainer: How We Interpret These Numbers

Think of these figures as the market’s vital signs.

• Median List Price — seller expectations have come down; a 4.82% drop shows recalibration.

• Median Close Price — a 5% decline confirms buyers are setting the market, not sellers.

• Days to Contract — higher timelines indicate reduced buyer urgency and elevated comparison shopping.

• Days to Close — unchanged, suggesting contract-to-close efficiency is stable.

• Sales-to-List Ratio — slight decline reflects stronger buyer pushback on pricing.

• Months of Inventory — holding at 5 months keeps Pinellas in a balanced-but-softening environment.

Craig’s Take

🌐 General Market Insights for All

Pinellas is experiencing the most visible corrections of the three counties.
Demand is thinning, pricing is slipping, and DOM is climbing faster than nearby markets.
The combination of insurance costs, aging housing stock, and affordability barriers (32.7% mortgage-to-income) pushes buyers into either waiting mode or shifting attention to Pasco, where price points remain friendlier.
Compared with Hillsborough, the cooling is sharper, not just slower.

🏡 For Buyers — “This Is the Deep-Breath Market”

Pinellas now offers buyers real leverage:
A 5% YoY price drop combined with 20% longer DTC gives space to negotiate meaningfully.
SLR declining to 0.95 suggests sellers are adjusting—not clinging to aspirational numbers.

Buyer Moves:

• Target 50+ DOM listings for the highest concession probability.

• Aim for inspection-based negotiation leverage—older homes often reveal items sellers prefer to credit rather than repair.

• Ask for rate buydowns; they’re increasingly normalized in Pinellas offers.

🏠 For Sellers — “Precision Beats Optimism Every Time”

With list prices down nearly 5% and DOM up 20%, sellers have less margin for error than Hillsborough counterparts.
While MOI sits at a stable 5, buyer quality—not buyer quantity—is the real differentiator.

Seller Action Plan:

• Price in alignment with the declining trend, not last spring’s comps.

• Invest in pre-list inspections to neutralize older-home objections early.

• Offer closing credits proactively—it signals flexibility and improves buyer pool size.

💰 For Investors — “Corrections Create Opportunity”

Pinellas’ softening prices open value-entry points—particularly for condos, duplexes, and older single-family homes needing cosmetic or mechanical updates.
With rents holding steadier than prices, yield potential is improving—especially in submarkets away from high-insurance coastal zones.

Investor Moves:

• Favor inland neighborhoods with lower premiums.

• Pursue value-add: kitchens, roofs, and mechanical updates convert directly into higher ARV (After Repair Value).

• Negotiate aggressively; DOM provides ample leverage.

🧩 Final Thoughts — Cross-County Pattern Recognition Strengthens

Now that Hillsborough and Pinellas are complete, a regional pattern is emerging:
Pinellas is the softest of the three, with the highest DOM and the clearest price retreat.
Hillsborough remains the “middle performer,” holding prices while demand cools.
Pasco—coming next—will likely show the strongest buyer activity but also the sharpest affordability strain based on early indicators.

Together, the counties paint a picture of a post-pandemic normalization era, shaped more by affordability than inventory.

economically grounded market—one where strategy beats speed every time.

Source: Trend calculations derived from a 90-day rolling average of StellarMLS activity compared to same period in 2024. Inventory and DOM estimates are corroborated with active listing volumes and price reductions tracked weekly.

📊 Market Movement at a Glance

(90-day rolling average as of November 2025)

Pasco’s November numbers show a market cooling at a steadier, more deliberate pace. Closed and pending sales continue to soften, days on market are slowly rising, and inventory is edging upward even as affordability tightens. This isn’t a retreat—it's a recalibration shaped by monthly payment pressure and buyer selectivity.

Pasco’s current behavior diverges from both 2019’s pre-pandemic foundation, when ownership costs consumed far less of household income, and the 2021–2022 intensity, when historically low mortgage rates amplified competition and pushed absorption rates to extremes. According to national indicators from Redfin and rate trends monitored by Freddie Mac, buyer hesitancy is now widespread—and Pasco fits squarely within that narrative. Closed sales are down 8%, pendings down a steeper 13%, and active listings are only modestly lower (–3%), creating a supply-demand imbalance that favors patience over urgency.

What stands out most is the gradual but persistent increase in days on market—now 70 days (+6%). That shift reflects the new affordability ceiling: mortgage-to-income at 33.8%, value-to-income at 4.5, and a 2.4% buy-vs-rent differential, per Reventure Consulting, which indicates an unusually narrow financial advantage between renting and owning. Meanwhile, economic assessments from Moody’s Analytics continue to identify Florida’s suburban counties—including Pasco—as areas where ownership costs outpace wage growth.

Sellers are maintaining a 94% sales-to-list ratio, but that stability comes from realistic pricing rather than rising demand. Buyers are still present—but only at price points that align with increasingly tight budgets.

💥 Affordability Strain

• Mortgage-to-income ratio (33.8%) — above the typical 28–30% threshold referenced by Freddie Mac.

• Value-to-income ratio (4.5) — elevated beyond long-term housing affordability benchmarks from Harvard JCHS.

• Buy-vs-rent differential (2.4%) — near parity, indicating minimal financial advantage to purchasing per Reventure.

• Payment burden — homeownership costs rising faster than wages tracked by BLS.

Pasco sits at an interesting crossroads:

Less price deterioration than Pinellas,

More affordability stress than Hillsborough,

And the strongest relative demand, despite the rising MOI and slowing contract pace.

Where Pinellas cooled the sharpest and Hillsborough held the middle ground, Pasco shows a blend of stubborn buyer demand + painful affordability tension, making it the most “tight-but-strained” of the three.

🔢 Key Market Metrics – as of November 2025

(Single-month snapshot of six core metrics; data sourced from Stellar MLS and Realist.)

💡 Quick Explainer: How We Interpret These Numbers

These figures tell us where the market is heading, not just where it’s been.

• Median List Price — slight decline shows early course correction from sellers.

• Median Close Price — a deeper drop reflects buyer resistance within tighter budgets.

• Days to Contract — rising times confirm reduced urgency and more careful buyer evaluation.

• Days to Close — modest uptick likely tied to financing friction, not market strength.

• Sales-to-List Ratio — unchanged, suggesting realistic pricing rather than competitive bidding.

• Months of Inventory — jump from 3 to 4 shifts the market closer to balance but with a softening tilt.

Craig’s Take

🌐 General Market Insights for All

Pasco is undergoing a mild recalibration.
Demand isn’t collapsing—it’s normalizing, and inventory is finally catching up after several years of chronic undersupply. The most concerning metric isn’t price or DOM—it’s affordability. With a 33.8% mortgage-to-income ratio, Pasco buyers are the most stretched in Tampa Bay, even as prices sit lower.

Compared with the other counties:

• Hillsborough has better affordability but similar demand softening.

• Pinellas is slower and weaker on pricing.

• Pasco has stronger underlying demand but worse affordability metrics.

This tension defines the county right now.

🏡 For Buyers — “The Window Is Opening… Slowly”

Pasco’s rising inventory + cooling contract pace creates real negotiation room—more than last year, but not as much as in Pinellas. Prices haven’t fallen dramatically, but sellers are more flexible because they’re competing with a growing active pool.

Buyer Moves:

• Use the 50+ DOM threshold to target the most negotiable homes.

• Prioritize rate buydown requests—they’re often cheaper for sellers than price cuts.

• Compare Pasco vs. Hillsborough monthly costs; affordability may swing your search area.

🏠 For Sellers — “Demand Is There, but Buyers Are Price-Sensitive”

Pasco sellers still benefit from solid buyer volume, but they can’t ignore affordability constraints.
The rise from 3 to 4 MOI means buyers have choices again.

Seller Action Plan:

• Keep pricing honest—Pasco buyers react quickly to overpricing.

• Offer closing credits to widen mortgage approval odds.

• Stage and photograph aggressively; you may be competing with more new inventory than last year.

💰 For Investors — “Pasco Is the Value-Entry County”

Even with stretched affordability, Pasco continues to attract inbound migration and first-time buyers priced out of Hillsborough and Pinellas.
Rents are comparatively stable, and acquisition costs are the lowest of the three counties.

Investor Moves:

• Target newer construction for fewer surprise capital expenses.

• Look for light rehab opportunities with strong ARV (After Repair Value) potential.

• Inland submarkets often outperform coastal-adjacent zones on insurance-adjusted returns.

🧩 Final Thoughts — Cross-County View Now Fully Formed

With all three counties complete, the regional narrative is clear:

• Pinellas is the softest market — highest DOM, largest price drop.

• Hillsborough is the stabilizer — prices held flat, demand down but not collapsing.

• Pasco is the affordability paradox — strong relative demand but the worst affordability squeeze (33.8% mortgage-to-income).

In all three counties, the era of “fast and furious” post-pandemic housing is over.
The new Tampa Bay market rewards realistic pricing, strategic negotiation, and patience, not emotional decision-making.