Craig's Take: The One Big Beautiful Bill

I. The One Big Beautiful Bill Is Here—And It’s Coming for Real Estate

Behind the bold name and Washington theatrics, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act might just be one of the most consequential pieces of legislation for real estate in recent memory. While media attention hones in on high-level political wins, tucked into this sweeping bill are 17 distinct provisions that directly impact the real estate market—and their effects may be far more disruptive than expected.

This isn’t legislative noise. This is a fundamental rewiring of how property is valued, developed, taxed, and regulated. The bill repeals over $60 billion in clean energy incentives, including credits that once covered up to 30% of residential solar installs, and guts longstanding green building and energy efficiency credits used by builders and investors alike. At the same time, it redirects billions into rural housing programs and Main Street redevelopment, signaling a major pivot in federal priorities.

But beneath the surface is a split-screen reality: while everyday buyers face tougher paths to ownership—with no federal down payment assistance and unchanged capital gains thresholds that haven’t budged since 1997—investors were handed a quiet victory. 1031 exchanges remain untouched, mortgage interest deductibility stays protected, and the 20% qualified business income (QBI) deduction is now locked in. This bill made real estate more profitable for the investor class—while the middle class shoulders the burden.

Whether buyers, investors, or developers—this bill could shape what gets built, what sells, and what stalls. Entire neighborhoods could gain or lose favor depending on how these new rules are applied, especially with environmental permitting changes poised to fast-track development in areas previously protected or overlooked.

Real estate just became more lucrative for the elite—and even more punishing for the middle.

As a Real Estate Strategist, I don’t just sell homes—I interpret trends. And the undercurrents of this bill will ripple through the market in the months and years ahead. In the breakdown that follows, I’ll unpack the most consequential sections and explain—in plain English—what they mean for the future of real estate. If you’re an investor or homeowner trying to stay ahead of the curve, you’ll want to read every word.

II. 17 Reasons This Bill Matters to Real Estate—And None Are in the Headlines

While the headlines zero in on politics, this legislation quietly delivers 17 real estate-impacting provisions—each one with ripple effects for how we buy, build, invest, and sell. Hidden throughout the One Big Beautiful Bill are 17 federal policy changes out of more than 400provisions that directly affect real estate, development, or housing policy. Here's what they really mean, in plain terms.

🔌 Energy & Green Building Incentives (Now Repealed or Cut)

• (Section 112006) Residential solar tax credit repealed – Homeowners will no longer receive 30% back on solar panel installs, increasing upfront costs by $6,000–$12,000.

• (Section 112007) Green home builder credit eliminated – Builders lose a $2,500–$5,000 incentive per energy-efficient home, making eco-conscious construction less appealing.

• (Section 112005) Tax credit for HVAC, insulation, and windows gone – Home upgrades that once earned homeowners $1,200 in credits no longer qualify.

• (Section 112002) EV charger tax credits repealed – Homeowners who install EV charging stations will get no federal assistance.

• (Sections 42101–42117) Green retrofit grants rescinded – Over $20B in federal funding for upgrading aging apartments and low-income housing has been pulled.

• (Section 50001) Green and Resilient Retrofit Program defunded – A key HUD program helping improve energy efficiency in multifamily housing is cut.

💸 Tax Reform That Hits(and Helps) Property Owners

• (Section 112018) SALT deduction cap raised – The federal cap on state and local tax deductions jumps from $10K to $40K, saving many Florida homeowners $5K–$15K/year.

• (Section 110008) Mortgage interest deduction preserved – Buyers can still deduct interest on mortgages up to $750K—no change here.

• (Section 110005) 20% pass-through deduction extended – Great news for Realtors, landlords, and investors using LLCs or S-Corps to hold property.

• (Section 111103) Bonus depreciation expanded – Builders and investors can continue to write off more renovation and improvement costs in year one.

• (Section 111102) Opportunity Zones renewed and enhanced – Tax-friendly zones for property investors are back in the spotlight, with new benefits.

🏗️ Construction, Land Use& Development Changes

• (Sections 10101–10108) Billions earmarked for rural development – Small towns and fringe suburbs may see a surge in federal housing and infrastructure dollars.

• (Section 80151) Permitting fast-tracked for developers – Environmental review fees are reduced, making it quicker (and easier) to get new projects off the ground.

• (Sections 80301–80317) Federal land use restrictions loosened – Makes it easier to develop on public lands, especially in the Southeast and Western states.

• (Section 42115) EPA permitting and enforcement slashed – Fewer environmental protections may open up flood zones and wetlands for development—but at higher risk.

• (Section 80307) Cuts to FEMA and NOAA resilience funding – Reduces investment in coastal protection, especially relevant to Florida markets like Tampa Bay.

🧱 Affordable Housing Programs Reshuffled

• (Section 111109) Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) modified – Program structure changes could increase or decrease affordable housing output, depending on state implementation.

   

📝 In Plain Terms...

• For homeowners, this means higher out-of-pocket costs for going green and fewer incentives to retrofit or upgrade.

• For sellers, SALT cap relief and mortgage interest deductibility could help retain value in high-tax markets, but the green premium just got weaker.

• For developers and investors, the smart money may shift toward suburban fringe markets, Opportunity Zones, and rural expansion—while rethinking the ROI of green construction.

III. New Bill, New Rules: A Tectonic Shift in Real Estate Policy Is Underway

1. Nationwide Real Estate Impact

The One Big Beautiful Bill is doing more than slashing budgets—it’s rewriting the rules of engagement for the U.S. housing market. For the first time in over a decade, the federal government is actively pulling back support from green development, while selectively expanding incentives for rural, investor-driven growth. And while the headlines focus on politics, real estate professionals, homeowners, and investors alike are waking up to a market fundamentally reprogrammed in silence.

The Green Backslide
• Gone are the marquee clean energy credits that once made solar panels, efficient HVAC systems, EV chargers, and Energy Star homes more affordable. The repeal of Sections 25C, 45L, and other tax programs eliminates up to $60billion in expected incentives. Builders and remodelers who previously relied on the $2,500–$5,000 per home energy efficiency credits now face a major hit to margins—and motivation.

• Residential solar adoption, which grew 40% year-over-year nationally in 2023and 2024, is projected to flatten or decline in 2026–2028, according to forecasts from the Solar Energy Industries Association. Worse still, for many buyers, the math no longer works—no tax credits, no offsets, and no downpayment assistance from the feds. That’s not just a policy change—it’s a signal that green building is no longer a federal priority.

A Builder’s Paradox

• While green-friendly construction is getting penalized, the bill doubles down on bonus depreciation, pass-through income deductions, and the extension of Opportunity Zones. These measures overwhelmingly favor developers, syndicators, and multifamily investors. A new carveout in Section 111103 even expands the threshold for asset expensing, allowing small and midsize construction firms to deduct up to $5 million in qualifying property improvements.

• Meanwhile, investors benefit from a protected tax environment: the 20% Qualified Business Income (QBI) deduction is locked in, 1031 exchanges remain untouched, and capital gains rules haven’t changed since 1997—despite a 260% rise in average home values since then.

• The Qualified Business Income (QBI) deduction allows eligible investors and developers operating as LLCs, S-corporations, or sole proprietors to deduct up to 20% of their net income before taxes. This means real estate investors holding property in pass-through entities now get a built-in discount on their taxable income—giving them a major edge over everyday buyers who have no such protection.

• The 1031 exchange, a powerful tool for investors, allows you to sell a property and defer capital gains taxes—as long as you reinvest the proceeds into a similar property. With this rule left untouched, investors can continue to scale portfolios tax-deferred, while regular homeowners must pay taxes once they surpass their exemption limits.

• For example, a homeowner who bought a $300,000 property in 2000 and sells it today for $900,000 could owe taxes on $150,000 of that gain—even though inflation and market appreciation far exceed the $250K–$500K exclusion threshold. The result? Long-term homeowners get taxed on their success, while investors walk away with deductions intact.

Insurance, Risk, and Climate Ignorance
• The repeal of EPA enforcement funding and weakening of environmental review standards (especially Section 42115 and Section 80152) will likely reduce costs for developers—but increase risk exposure. This means fewer checks against overdevelopment in high-risk flood zones, wetlands, and wildfire corridors.

• As climate risk grows, insurance carriers are already pulling back—14 states saw insurers limit coverage or exit markets entirely in 2024, a trend likely to accelerate. In that vacuum, development may surge—but protection will shrink. Homeowners will be asked to shoulder more risk, more cost, and more uncertainty—while investor-led projects continue with fewer barriers and more write-offs.

2. Tampa Bay Take — What It Means Locally

In a sunbelt city like Tampa—where hurricane risk, urban growth, and affordability are all colliding—this bill doesn’t just shift the rules. It shifts the ground we’re standing on. The market’s underlying structure is changing quietly—but rapidly.

Rising Tides, Sinking Support
• Tampa Bay’s coastal vulnerability makes FEMA and NOAA funding especially critical. With Section 80201 repealing investments in coastal resilience and Section 80307 cutting key National Park and land use enforcement budgets, local governments may face delays or denials in federal mitigation and recovery grants. For homeowners in AE or VE flood zones, this could increase annual insurance premiums by $1,000–$3,000, especially as Risk Rating 2.0 scales nationwide.

• And the risk doesn’t end with storms—this funding rollback reduces oversight in sensitive development areas, potentially increasing exposure to overbuilding in zones already deemed climate-vulnerable.

The Solar Shock
• Florida ranked #3 in the U.S. for residential solar installs in 2024, but that’s now at risk. Homeowners and investors in Hillsborough and Pinellas who counted on the 30% solar investment tax credit (and accelerated depreciation for rental properties) will now absorb the full cost—removing what was often a$6,000–$12,000 tax benefit per system.

• It’s not just an affordability issue—it’s an appraisal one too. As those green features lose their tax value, homes that marketed “net zero” or eco-efficiency could lose perceived value, especially in the short-term rental and luxury new construction segments. For Tampa Bay’s climate-conscious buyers and builders, this is a hard reset.

A Silver Lining for Suburban Sellers?
• The bill’s increased SALT cap (from $10k to $40k) may temporarily boost higher-end home demand in areas like South Tampa, Davis Islands, and Westchase. With property taxes running $10k–$18k annually in those zip codes, some buyers may now qualify for $5k–$15k more in deductible relief, making these homes more financially palatable.

• But zoom out, and the advantage fades: many homeowners who bought pre-boom and are now sitting on substantial equity may be nearing or surpassing the outdated capital gains exclusion. Their reward? A 25% tax bill on appreciation gains that haven’t been adjusted in nearly three decades.

Rural & “Almost-Urban” Expansion
•  Sections 10101–10108 and 111102 channel billions into rural development, which for Tampa could stimulate growth in Pasco, Hernando, and eastern Hillsborough. Expect developers to take advantage of easier permitting and enhanced depreciation—potentially fueling a new wave of single-family or build-to-rent neighborhoods just outside the urban fringe.

• This suburban acceleration favors well-capitalized builders and investor-backed projects. For buyers operating at the edge of affordability, the race is on to compete—not just on price, but on proximity, product type, and long-term viability in a post-incentive landscape.

While everyone argues over the politics, this bill quietly made real estate more profitable for investors—and more punishing for everyday buyers and sellers.

IV. The New Rules of Real Estate: How to Navigate as a Buyer, Seller, or Investor

Whether you're buying your first home, preparing to sell, or analyzing your next investment play, this bill rewrites the playbook. With 17housing-relevant provisions baked into a sweeping federal overhaul, here’s what you need to know—and how to move forward smartly in a dramatically shifting market.

🏠 For Buyers: A New Cost Equation

If you're in the market to buy, this bill may hit your wallet in unexpected ways. While it preserves mortgage interest deductions and increases SALT caps (State and Local Tax deductions)—a major benefit in high-tax states like Florida—it also quietly eliminates the federal energy incentives that helped offset the cost of green home upgrades.

What’s changed:
• You can still deduct interest on home loans up to $750,000 (Section110008).

• The SALT deduction cap has quadrupled—from $10,000 to $40,000—saving many Tampa-area buyers up to $15,000 per year in itemized deductions (Section 112018).

• PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance) is now 100% tax deductible again—a quiet win for buyers with lower down payments who typically pay PMI on loans with less than 20% down.

• But key federal support for solar panels, energy-efficient windows, and eco-friendly HVAC systems is now gone (Sections 112005–112007). These incentives once gave buyers a $6,000–$12,000 head start on sustainable upgrades—and now, they’ll face the full cost.

What this means for you:

• Expect higher utility bills, fewer green options on the market, and more out-of-pocket expenses if you want to retrofit an older home. However, if you're putting less than 20% down, the newly restored PMI deductibility could offer meaningful tax relief—offsetting some of your monthly costs. And without down payment assistance (which was cut entirely), affordability challenges will persist—especially for first-time buyers.

• First-time buyers and those with limited savings are most affected by the elimination of federal down payment assistance. Without these programs, qualifying for entry-level homes becomes harder—especially in high-demand markets like Tampa Bay.

• Buying now may feel expensive—but zoom out and you’ll see the context. In 2014–2015, median home listings in Tampa ranged from $130,000 to $160,000. By early 2025, that number had grown to $399,000–$408,500—effectively tripling over the decade. Even if prices plateau in the short term, history shows Tampa has averaged 10–12% appreciation annually. For buyers who plan to stay put and ride the next cycle, there’s still strong long-term upside potential—even as market momentum normalizes.

What to do:
• Focus your search on homes that already have upgraded systems—before sellers remove them or stop advertising them as premium features.

• If affordability is tight, look to suburban or rural zones now receiving billions in infrastructure and housing incentives (Sections 10101–10108).

• Take full advantage of mortgage interest deductions and the new SALT cap to reduce your annual tax burden.

🏡 For Sellers: Price Strategically, Market Creatively

If you're thinking about listing, your advantage may depend on how quickly you act—and how well you position your home in today’s recalibrated market. This bill offers some indirect help to move-up buyers, but it also devalues what were once standout features.

What’s changed:
• The SALT deduction expansion boosts purchasing power for buyers with larger incomes or higher property tax burdens—especially in top-tier neighborhoods.

• However, homes with solar or green certifications no longer give buyers a federal tax edge. That $2,500–$5,000 energy incentive? Gone.

• Insurance may become a bigger objection for homes in FEMA-designated flood zones (Federal Emergency Management Agency), as grant funding and regulatory enforcement were scaled back (Section 80307).

What this means for you:

• The premium on energy-efficient upgrades has shrunk. Instead, lifestyle, location, and long-term operating costs will dominate buyer conversations. However, the return of PMI deductibility may make lower-down-payment buyers more willing to stretch—especially in the $400K–$750K range. And if your home is in a flood zone? Expect scrutiny.

• If you’re selling a starter or mid-range home, expect a tighter pool of qualified buyers. With no federal down payment help available, fewer buyers will be able to enter the market—especially in the $250K–$500K range.

• Long-term owners have seen home values soar. In Hillsborough County, the median sale price jumped +212.9% between July 2012 and July 2022, according to FRED data. Similarly, the FHFA House Price Index for the Tampa metro surged 203% from Q4 2014 to Q4 2024, averaging around 12% annualized growth. If you bought before 2015, your property may have tripled in value—creating substantial equity. However, because capital gains exclusions haven’t been adjusted in decades, much of that gain may now be taxable if you exceed the $250K–$500K cap.

   

  • Here’s the issue: While Tampa home values have doubled or tripled over the past decade, the capital gains tax exclusion hasn’t increased since 1997. The cap still sits at $250,000 for individuals and $500,000 for married couples—an amount that no longer reflects today’s home prices.

    That means a seller who bought a $250K home in 2013 and sells it in 2025 for $850K could owe taxes on $100K or more of their gain—even if they lived there the entire time. And with appreciation that strong, many long-term owners in Tampa, Westchase, and South Tampa may now face a 15–20% federal tax bill on equity they didn’t expect to lose.

     

• Your listing strategy must evolve. Green features like solar are now harder to monetize—unless you focus on real-world cost savings, not tax benefits. Meanwhile, long-time homeowners may face a surprise: the capital gains exclusion cap ($250K for individuals, $500K for married couples) hasn’t been adjusted since 1997—even though home prices have soared.

• This tax lag means a seller with decades of equity could now face a 25% federal tax on a portion of their gain—further eating into profits just as buyer costs and insurance premiums rise.

What to do:
• Shift your marketing narrative to emphasize lifestyle value: school districts, proximity to growth corridors, and monthly cost predictability.

• If your home has energy-efficient upgrades, showcase the actual utility savings (i.e., lower electric bills), not outdated tax credits.

• Consider listing now—before rising insurance costs and higher borrowing rates cool demand further.

🏗️ For Investors: Shift Focus to Where the Money’s Going

This bill is a mixed bag for investors. It removes many of the green renovation benefits that were previously great for flipping or long-term efficiency plays—but quietly protects and expands tax advantages for those building at scale.

What’s changed:
• Bonus depreciation—which lets you deduct a large portion of an asset’s value in year one—has been extended (Section 110005).

• The 20% pass-through income deduction (also known as the QBI deduction, for Qualified Business Income) remains in place—offering major tax relief for LLCs, partnerships, and S-corporations in real estate (Section111103).

• Opportunity Zones are getting fresh attention, with expanded tax deferment and capital gains benefits (Section 111102).

• What are Opportunity Zones?
  Opportunity Zones (OZs) are federally designated census tracts in economically distressed areas. Investors who buy and improve property in these zones can qualify for major tax benefits, including:

  • Deferral of capital gains from previous sales (until 2027)

  • Partial exclusion of gains if held for 5–7 years

  • Full exclusion of new gains on investments held for 10+ years

   

  These benefits were designed to incentivize long-term development in underserved communities, and under the new bill, they’ve been renewed and strengthened through 2031.

   

  Where are they in Tampa Bay?
  Several Opportunity Zones exist throughout the region, including:

  • East Tampa (around Ybor City, 40th Street corridor)

  • West River redevelopment area (just northwest of downtown Tampa)

  • South St. Petersburg (Childs Park, Midtown, and Bartlett Park)

  • Parts of Clearwater and Largo

  • Zephyrhills and Dade City in Pasco County

   

  These areas are seeing increased public-private investment, making them ripe for long-term rental projects, affordable housing developments, and commercial revitalization.

   

  Why it matters now:
  With the bill doubling down on OZ tax advantages—and reducing many other green and retrofit benefits—these zones offer one of the last powerful tax shelters for real estate investors. It’s a chance to align social impact with financial strategy.

   

  Sources for OZ-Eligible Areas in Tampa Bay:

  • Florida Opportunity Zone Map

  • Tampa OZ Designation Info (City of Tampa)

  • OpportunityDB OZ Directory

• Meanwhile, energy retrofit grants and multifamily upgrade funding—critical to older housing stock investors—have been rescinded (Sections 42101–42117,50001).

What this means for you:

• Tampa has been one of the nation’s top-performing investment markets over the last decade. Between 2014 and 2024, home prices in the metro rose by over 203% based on the FHFA index. County-level data shows even stronger growth: +212.9% in Hillsborough County between 2012 and 2022. These numbers represent the tail end of a historic bull run in real estate. While growth has cooled slightly post-2023, the 10-year baseline gives investors confidence in Tampa’s resilience—especially when aligned with long-term development and federal tax incentives like Opportunity Zones and bonus depreciation.

• The playbook has changed. Investors flipping properties for energy-efficiency gains will see diminished ROI. But those developing new builds in suburban and rural expansion zones now have a federal tailwind—and tax code to match. These aren't just loopholes—they’re strategic advantages.

• For homeowners, the capital gains tax cap has remained frozen since 1997—despite inflation and 200%+ price increases. But investors using 1031 exchanges or Opportunity Zones can still defer or reduce gains legally, giving them a clear long-term edge.

  This disparity means investors with the right structure and timing can sell and reinvest repeatedly without realizing taxes, while regular sellers are taxed on growth that Congress hasn’t acknowledged in nearly 30 years.

What to do:
• Reallocate capital toward new construction in fringe markets like Pasco, Hernando, and eastern Hillsborough—areas newly favored by rural housing grants.

• Reevaluate Opportunity Zone projects with long-term holding potential—you may now defer capital gains for longer and exit with a lighter tax bill.

• Invest Where the Tax Code Wants You To
  Opportunity Zones still offer decade-long tax freedom—if you play the long game. East Tampa, Midtown St. Pete, and West River aren’t just revitalizing—they’re rewriting the investor playbook.

• Use bonus depreciation to lower your tax liability in year one, especially if you’re acquiring or building assets with eligible improvements.